| 王栋.美国强大的原因及发展趋势[J].国际安全研究,2013,(6):83-97 |
| 美国强大的原因及发展趋势 |
| On the Factors and Trajectory of the U.S. Prowess |
| 投稿时间：2013-08-06 修订日期：2013-08-26 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 美国实力 美国霸权 美国衰落 国际秩序 |
| 英文关键词: U.S. power, U.S. hegemony, U.S. decline, international order |
| 基金项目: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 美国强大的原因可以从势、道、制、术、器与士（即国际格局与国际力量对比、美国的意识形态与核心价值体系、政治经济与社会制度、科技与战略政策制定、经济与军事硬实力、人才培养与储备机制等方面）进行分析。由于新兴国家崛起，美国单极体系已经终结，美国霸权相对削弱，但是美国仍将在相当长的一段时间之内维持“一超”的地位。从劳动生产率、基础科研实力及研发投入、高等教育体系、外资投资环境、人口结构以及新兴产业等因素考察，美国经济长远来看仍具有较大的相对优势。未来美国霸权依然存在，美国二战后所确立的以“结构自由主义”为特征的国际秩序是美国霸权能够持久的最重要的基础，也是二战后西方国家之间的关系能够超越“零和”博弈格局的重要原因。美国对华战略并非遏制，而是“对冲/两面下注”。中美之间存在超越历史上传统大国“零和”博弈的可能，中国领导人提出建立中美新型大国关系的建议反映了这种战略远见。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| This article examines the factors explaining the U.S. prowess from the following aspects: shi (correlation of force), dao (ideology and value), zhi (institution), shu (stratagem), qi (instrument), and shi (adviser), namely, international correlation of forces, the U.S. ideology and core value system, the U.S. political, economic and social institutions, development of science and technology as well as strategy and policy making, economic and military hard powers, and mechanisms of cultivation and reservation of talents. Then, the article investigates into the question of whether the U.S. has declined. Based on an analysis of factors including labor productivity, basic scientific research and research and development (R&D) input, institutions of higher learning, environment for foreign investments, demography, as well as emerging industries, the author argues that the U.S. economy still enjoys relative advantages in the long run. Finally, the author holds that the international order characterized by “structural liberalism” established by the U.S. after the Second World War has been one of the most important bases of the enduring U.S. hegemony. Such an international order is also an important reason why relations between Western countries since the end of the Second World War can transcend the “zero-sum” game. |
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