| 冯昭奎.21世纪初国际能源格局及今后的中长期变化 ——兼论日本能源安全的出路与困境[J].国际安全研究,2013,(6):98-123 |
| 21世纪初国际能源格局及今后的中长期变化 ——兼论日本能源安全的出路与困境 |
| International Energy Pattern in Early 21st Century and Its Medium |
| 投稿时间：2013-07-01 修订日期：2013-09-09 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 气候变化 能源安全 能源范式 非常规油气资源 可再生能源 |
| 英文关键词: climate change, energy security, energy paradigm, nontraditional oil and gas resources, renewal energy |
| 基金项目: |
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| 摘要点击次数: 1923 |
| 全文下载次数: 1129 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 为了应对全球气候变化，需对能源安全概念进行“范式转换”，即能源安全不仅要包括能源供需矛盾、能源供需网络的脆弱性和潜在风险，而且要与环境安全、水安全相结合，形成“广义的能源安全”概念。当前，一系列新因素正在使国际能源格局和能源范式发生重大变化：福岛核电站特大事故严重影响了全球公众对核安全的信心，今后世界各国发展核电会更加谨慎；可再生能源日益发展与普及；气候变暖正在改变能源资源与环境资源相加的自然资源“总格局”；非常规油气资源日益开发、天然气地位上升以及美洲能源供给新轴心崛起；“可燃冰革命”及海洋能源进一步开发。在福岛核事故后，日本能源安全既面临风险，又面临机遇。今后日本能源安全战略的动向主要是：坚持发展核电，但会更加谨慎稳健；积极开展能源外交，实现能源来源多元化；在一次能源结构中增大天然气的比重；大力发展可再生能源和节能；大力开发可燃冰等海洋能源资源。此外，当前日本政府错误的周边外交政策将成为日本能源安全最大的潜在风险，可望长期执政的自民党政权采取的鹰派民族主义政策，终将给日本惹祸，首当其冲的祸害对象就是日本的能源安全。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Given global climate change, the concept of energy security needs to have a “paradigm shift”: it should not only include energy supply-demand contradictions and network vulnerabilities and potential risks but also be related with environmental and water security, forming a more generalized concept of energy security. Currently, a number of new factors are prompting significant changes in the international energy landscape and energy paradigm: first, the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident has had a serious impact on the global public confidence in nuclear safety, and countries around the world will be more prudent in developing nuclear power; second, renewable energy develops fast and gets increasingly popular; third, climate change is changing the “overall pattern” of natural resources including both energy and environment; fourth, unconventional oil and gas resources are developed, the status of natural gas is elevated, and the new axis of energy supply in America rises; fifth, here comes “combustible ice revolution” and marine energy development. After Fukushima nuclear accident, Japanese energy security faces both opportunities and challenges. Thus, for the future trend of energy security strategies, Japan will adhere to the development of nuclear power but with more cautiousness and robustness, actively promote energy diplomacy to ensure the diversity of energy supply, increase the portion of natural gas in its primary energy structure, vigorously develop renewable resources and promote energy efficiency, and put more emphasis on the development of marine energy resources such as combustible ice. Finally, the current Japanese foreign policy on the neighboring region will be the biggest potential risks for its energy security; the hawkish nationalist policies of the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party will eventually lead Japan to a disaster, and Japan’s energy security will be the first to bear the brunt |
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