| 罗英杰.中亚安全形势的变化及其影响[J].国际安全研究,2016,(2):103-124 |
| 中亚安全形势的变化及其影响 |
| Security Situations in Central Asia:Changes and Impacts |
| 投稿时间：2015-12-23 修订日期：2016-01-10 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 中亚安全 阿富汗局势 伊斯兰国 大国博弈 |
| 英文关键词: Central Asia security, the situation in Afghanistan, ISIS, great power game |
| 基金项目: |
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| 摘要点击次数: 2979 |
| 全文下载次数: 1876 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 2014年以来,中亚安全形势发生了较大的变化。塔利班频频越境袭扰,“伊斯兰国”不断向中亚渗透,加之跨境贩毒的有增无减使得中亚面临的安全压力不断增加。中亚安全形势变化的背后有着较为复杂的原因,其中既有美国对中东和阿富汗政策调整的因素,也有中亚国家自身政治经济军事体制转型过程中诸多问题的反应,此外还与中亚地区复杂的历史和民族问题有关。中亚安全形势的变化不仅迟滞了中亚国家的社会政治转型进程,还对参与该地区博弈的俄美欧等大国,尤其是对俄罗斯产生了重要的影响,对中国西北边疆的安全及即将实施的“丝绸之路经济带”战略也带来了较大的挑战。虽然目前中亚安全形势总体上仍在可控范围,但是中亚安全问题解决的前景仍然充满了不确定性,中短期内中亚的安全形势难以大幅改观。未来,我们必须要从多边、双边和个人等多个层面入手,加强国际合作,以有效应对中亚安全问题对中国的威胁。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The security situations in Central Asia have undergone a series of changes since 2014. With the frequent cross-border incursions of Taliban, the constant penetration of ISIS, and the increasing cross-border drug trafficking, the security in Central Asia is faced with escalating pressure. Behind these changes lie complex reasons:the adjusted US’ Middle Eastern and Afghanistan policies, the repercussion of the transformation in Central Asian political, economic and military systems, and the intertwined historical and ethnic problems. These changes have also delayed social and political transformation of Central Asian countries, affected the contending powers in the region, such as Russia, the USA and Europe, especially Russia in particular, and brought grave challenges to China’s northwest border security and its implementation of the “Silk Road Economic Belt” strategy. Although the overall security situations in Central Asia are manageable, the prospect of resolving its security issues is still full of uncertainty. Security situations in Central Asia can hardly be improved in a short term. International cooperation on multilateral, bilateral and individual levels needs be strengthened in the future so as to effectively respond to the threats resulting from Central Asian security problems. |
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