| 林宏宇.国际安全态势感知指数解析(1995-2015)*[J].国际安全研究,2016,(6):90-106 |
| 国际安全态势感知指数解析(1995-2015)* |
| An Interpretation of the “Index of International Security Situation Awareness”（1995-2015） |
| 修订日期：2016-09-24 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 国际安全态势感知指数 2016年研究报告 国际安全 国家安全 |
| 英文关键词: IISSA(2016), International Security, National Security |
| 基金项目: |
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| 摘要点击次数: 1917 |
| 全文下载次数: 1588 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 国际安全无处不在,无时不在。如何准确地衡量我们所处的国际安全环境的好坏？如何评估各国的国际安全状态？由国际关系学院《国际安全研究》编辑部和对外经济贸易大学国际关系学院大数据国际关系研究中心联合研究开发的《国际安全态势感知指数2016》(IISSA)即是一种有效的量化工具,让我们可以像利用“空气指数”(AQI)帮助我们了解空气质量一样,利用“国际安全态势感知指数2016”,可以帮助我们从全球、大洲、区域、国别四个层次感性地了解当今世界的国际安全状况。对该指数的研究可以得出四个结论:从全球层面来看,长期的国际安全状况较差,中期的国际安全状况虽有所改善,但短期状况又呈现负面化；从大洲层面来看,欧洲地区国际安全态势最好,大洋洲次之,亚洲和非洲相对较差；从区域层面来看,可以发现与该区域有关的国际热点问题是影响该区域国际安全态势的重要因素；从国别层面来看,新西兰、瑞士和瑞典是国际安全感最好的三个国家,阿富汗、叙利亚和巴基斯坦是安全感最差的三个国家,而在世界主要大国中,欧洲核心大国(英、法、德)的国际安全态势最佳,中国次之。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| While international security is ubiquitous, it is invisible and intangible. In times of peace, how can we accurately measure the international security environment and evaluate the international security trend for each state? The Index of International Security Situation Awareness 2016 (IISSA), jointly developed by the Journal of International Security Studies of the University of International Relations and the Institute of Big Data for International Relations at the University of International Business and Economics, is such an effective quantitative tool to help us have better perceptual knowledge of the current international security situations. A detailed interpretation of the IISSA (2016) will be presented in this paper on the global, continental, regional and national levels. The author has come to 4 conclusions as follows:First, on the global level, the international community will have a relatively difficult security situation in the long term. While there are some positive factors in the international security situations, the short-and-medium term trend does not give much cause for optimism. Second, on the continental level, while Europe enjoys the best international security situation, Asia and Africa have relatively weak security situations. Third, by analyzing the changing index on the regional level, we find that regional hotspot issues are the key factors that influence security situation in that region. Lastly, on the national level, New Zealand, Switzerland, and Sweden have the lowest international security index with the highest sense of security. Afghanistan, Syria, and Pakistan have the highest international security index with the lowest sense of security. Among major world countries, Core Europe (UK, France, and Germany) enjoys the best international security trend without either domestic troubles or foreign invasions. China occupies the second place in the ranking. |
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