| 员欣依,孙向丽.北约核政策与核态势的回顾及展望[J].国际安全研究,2017,(5):128-154 |
| 北约核政策与核态势的回顾及展望 |
| NATO’s Nuclear Policy and Nuclear Posture: Review and Prospect |
| 投稿时间：2017-02-27 修订日期：2017-05-04 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 北大西洋公约组织 核武器 核态势 核政策 乌克兰危机 欧美俄关系 |
| 英文关键词: NATO, nuclear weapons, nuclear posture, nuclear polices, Ukraine crisis |
| 基金项目: |
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| 摘要点击次数: 2040 |
| 全文下载次数: 1044 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 北大西洋公约组织作为军事同盟,自建立之初就以美国核武器的“延伸威慑”为安全保障。冷战时期,欧洲曾是美苏争夺霸权的重要战场,双方进行了疯狂的核军备竞赛,欧洲长时间笼罩在核阴云之中。冷战结束后,欧洲各国从核阴霾中成功走出,在美国的主导下,北约实力逐步走向全盛时期。出于对后冷战时期国际安全形势的乐观判断,北约的关注重点从单纯的传统军事防御向更加广泛的非传统安全领域扩展,核武器在北约防卫中的作用不断减弱,核武器规模不断裁减。然而,2014年的乌克兰危机给欧洲的战略格局带来巨大冲击,俄与美欧关系降至冰点,双方开始轮番展示核力量,核阴影再次重现欧洲上空。从北约核态势的历史演变轨迹和乌克兰危机对北约核态势的冲击中,人们能够窥见北约未来安全发展态势。当前北约与俄罗斯核态势的变化,预示着未来核竞赛模式与风险都会与冷战时期有所不同,意味着核门槛的降低以及核武器使用风险的增加,这对全球核不扩散机制、全球核裁军进程与全球军事竞争模式都将产生深远影响。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Since its establishment, NATO, as a military alliance, has mainly relied on the “extended deterrence” of the US as its security backup. During the Cold War era, Europe was an important battlefield where the Soviet Union and the United States scrambled for world hegemony. A fanatic nuclear arms race was carried out the two countries and Europe was shrouded in dark clouds of nuclear fear for a long time. When the Cold War was over, European countries successfully stepped out from the nuclear haze. Dominated by the United States, NATO gradually reached its heyday. Based on an optimistic judgment over the international security situation in the post-Cold War era, NATO shifted its concern and focus from purely traditional military defense to a broader non-traditional security area, which weakened the importance of nuclear weapons in NATO’s defense strategies and led to a cut-down on nuclear forces. However, this situation didn’t last long. The Ukraine crisis in 2014 had a tremendous impact on the strategic pattern of Europe and the relationships between Russia and the United States/Europe had dropped to a point close to freezing. These two big powers began to exhibit their respective nuclear power, thus recasting a nuclear shadow over Europe. Reviewing the historical evolution of NATO in its nuclear situation and examining the impact of Ukraine crisis on NATO’s nuclear posture, people can get a glimpse of its future security trend. The current changes in NATO and Russia’s nuclear postures suggest that the competition mode and nuclear risk in the future will differ from those in the Cold War era, which gives rise to a lower nuclear threshold and an increased possibility of the use of nuclear weapons. These changes will exert a profound impact on the global nuclear non-proliferation mechanism, the nuclear disarmament process and the model of military rivalry. |
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