| 王伟.国际秩序转型与族群冲突研究[J].国际安全研究,2017,(6):51-69 |
| 国际秩序转型与族群冲突研究 |
| A Study on International Order Transition and Ethnic Conflicts |
| 投稿时间：2017-04-20 修订日期：2017-07-26 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 族群冲突 国际秩序 权力转移 大国竞争 |
| 英文关键词: ethnic conflict, international order, power transition, great-power competition |
| 基金项目:本文系为2016年度国家社科基金重点项目“中国特色民族团结理论与实践研究”(项目编号:16AMZOO4)的研究成果。 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 大国竞争和大国实力的变化是国际秩序转型的主要变量,它们影响着族群冲突。大国实力下降造成国内统治力减弱,届时国内各族群为争取权力而进行族群动员,引发族群冲突；同时大国实力下降会收缩其在国际控制范围,进而出现权力真空,由此引发族群对于权力的竞争和冲突。大国间竞争也会引发族群冲突。大国在某一地区或国家的经济竞争会引起族群间的收入不平等,进而引发或加剧族群间的竞争和冲突；大国在政治上的竞争,尤其在地缘政治上的争夺会引发族群冲突；大国在意识形态上的竞争为族群竞争提供思想支持。数据显示,1946-2015年间的族群冲突与苏联和美国的实力变化存在一定的趋势匹配。当美苏之间实力变化不大、竞争缓和时,族群冲突也相对减少；当两国之间实力起伏较大、竞争加剧时,族群冲突便有增长趋势,特别是苏联解体后,权力由苏联转向美国的几年,族群冲突异常激烈。1961-1991伊拉克库尔德人族群运动与苏美间的竞争息息相关,苏联通过支持伊拉克,以获得其在中东地区的影响力。美国为了减少苏联在海湾地区的影响力,确保丰富廉价的石油供应,唆使库尔德人反对伊拉克,并利用伊朗和伊拉克边界争端,通过支持伊朗来制衡伊拉克,进而削弱伊拉克,以确保其在该地区的影响力。正是美苏对该地区石油、地缘战略和意识形态阵地的争夺,让该地区复杂的族群、宗教矛盾成为它们全球争霸的工具,加之库尔德人自身的诉求,最终酿成长达三十多年的族群冲突。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Competition among great powers and changes in their strengths are the two main variables in international order transition, which affects ethnic conflicts. The declining strengths of great powers will inevitably undermine their domestic governance whereby ethnic groups may mobilize their members for more power, thus giving rise to ethnic conflicts. At the same time, due to their declining strengths, great powers will have to compress their spheres of influence and create a power vacuum, which may trigger competition and conflict among ethnic groups for power. Competition among great powers may also lead to ethnic conflicts. First, economic competition launched by great powers in a certain region or country causes income inequality among ethnic groups and thus instigates or exacerbates ethnic competition and conflicts; second, political competition among great powers, especially geopolitical competition, leads to ethnic conflicts; third, ideological competition among great powers provides conceptual support for ethnic conflicts. Relevant data have demonstrated a correlation between ethnic conflicts and power changes in the relationship between the Soviet Union/Russia and the United States from 1946 to 2015. To be more exact, when the two countries had a relatively good relationship and did not experience much change in their strengths, ethnic conflicts decreased accordingly. However, when there was a huge discrepancy in their strengths and an intensified competition, ethnic conflicts took on an upward trend. Ethnic conflicts grew significantly in the years after the disintegration of the Soviet Union. From 1961 to 1991, the ethnic movements of the Kurds in Iraq had great bearing on the competition between the Soviet Union and the United States. The Soviet Union intended to secure its influence in the Middle East by providing support to Iraq whereas the United States, in the hope of reducing the influence of the Soviet Union over the Gulf region and ensuring an abundant supply of cheap oil, instigated the Kurds against the Iraq government, and took advantage of the Iran-Iraq border dispute to contain and weaken Iraq by rendering support to Iran. In a word, it was the scramble for oil, geo-strategic interests and ideological positions of the United States and the Soviet Union in the Middle East, coupled with the Kurds’ own political aspirations that gave rise to the prolonged ethnic conflicts over 30 years. The manipulation by the two great powers of the complicated ethnic and religious conflicts played a special role in this region. |
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