| 时殷弘.中国的东北亚难题:中日、中韩和中朝关系的战略安全形势[J].国际安全研究,2018,(1):19-28 |
| 中国的东北亚难题:中日、中韩和中朝关系的战略安全形势 |
| China’s Dilemmas in Northeast Asia: The Strategic Security Situations of China’s Relations with Japan, ROK, and DPRK |
| 投稿时间：2017-06-12 修订日期：2017-09-19 |
| DOI：10.14093/j.cnki.cn10-1132/d.2018.01.002 |
| 中文关键词: 东北亚 中日关系 中韩关系 中朝关系 朝鲜问题 |
| 英文关键词: Northeast Asia, China-Japan relations, China-ROK relations, China-DPRK relations, the North Korea Issue |
| 基金项目: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 中国和日本都在实行某种总体上对于对方的战略“双轨”方针,一方面谋求在有限程度上改善关系,另一方面继续进行战略对峙和战略预防。中国需要进一步稳定目前的中日关系,继续缓解对抗,防止军事冲突,同时依靠缓解对抗来阻滞日本行进中的解禁集体自卫权进程。美韩两国在韩部署“萨德”反导系统的决定导致中国强烈愤怒,中韩关系随之急剧和显著地恶化。然而,争取和维持韩国对中国的基本或起码友善这个重大利益依然存在,它密切地关系到防止和制止朝鲜半岛成为美国针对中国的战略/军事堡垒,因而中国对韩国要不将任何基本的事情“做绝”,尽可能不主动损伤中韩关系多年发展造就的每一项已有的重大成果。中国在朝鲜和朝鲜半岛问题上有六项很经久的核心利益或重大利害,它们都对中国至关紧要,因而总的来说不能扬此抑彼,更不能舍彼取此。必须估计到,朝鲜问题上对中国总的来说有利的、基本和平地解决问题的时机早已过去,今后该问题的前途对中国来说都严重不祥。因而,从长远出发特别重要的是,对朝决不将任何基本的事情“做绝”,防止或阻止朝鲜持对华持久敌视态度；任何情况下都决不容许美国和美韩同盟在军事上控制朝鲜半岛北部。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Both China and Japan have been pursuing a strategic “two-track” approach toward each other, seeking to improve the bilateral relationship on a limited scale while continuing to implement strategic precaution and confrontation. China shall further stabilize the current Sino-Japan relations, continue to mitigate confrontation, prevent military conflicts and retard the process of lifting the ban on Japan’s collective self-defense rights by decreasing tensions with Japan. The decision made by the US and ROK to deploy THAAD missile defense system in the ROK territory has provoked outrage in China, resulting in a drastic deterioration in Sino-ROK relations. However, seeking and maintaining the basic good-willingness of ROK toward China remains a major stake in preventing the Peninsular from becoming a US strategic/military fortress against China. Therefore, it is a wise policy for China not to “go to extremes” and damage those key results achieved by joint efforts from both China and ROK. China has six core interests related to the DPRK and Peninsular issues and all of them should be given equal weight. It is wrong to highlight one at the expense of others. It deserves noticing that the timing for China to peacefully address the issue of North Korea has already gone and the daunting prospect of this thorny issue will be substantially ominous to China. In the long run, China shall never leave no room for handling issues related to North Korea so as to prevent or deter it from holding a permanent hostile attitude towards China. In no case shall the United States and the US-ROK alliance be allowed to take military control of the northern part of the Peninsular. |
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