| 江天骄.再论核禁忌[J].国际安全研究,2018,(1):89-106 |
| 再论核禁忌 |
| Do We Really Have the Nuclear Taboo? |
| 投稿时间：2017-05-09 修订日期：2017-06-09 |
| DOI：10.14093/j.cnki.cn10-1132/d.2018.01.006 |
| 中文关键词: 核禁忌 核威慑 核伦理学 |
| 英文关键词: nuclear taboo, nuclear deterrence, nuclear ethics |
| 基金项目: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| “核禁忌”作为一种道德规范是具有感召力的。然而,“核禁忌”理论本身存在诸多矛盾和谬误之处。不使用核武器并没有成为一种普遍的禁止性规范,“核禁忌”也无法削弱核威慑的意义。从历史经验看,尽管自广岛、长崎之后核武器再也没有被使用过,但许多决策者都有过使用核武器的想法。只是根据理性分析、权衡利弊之后放弃了这一选择。而从政治心理学的层面分析,“核禁忌”理论显然夸大了单一规范在决策过程中的影响力。尤其在不同的利益相互冲突的场景下,国家安全往往具有压倒性的地位。事实上,冷战后的全球核态势发展并没有受到这种禁忌的束缚,却时而出现倾向于使用核武器的势头。近年来,美国正对其核武库进行现代化升级并积极研发新型核武器。以美俄为代表的核大国也通过调整自身的核战略为可能实施的核打击大开方便之门。似是而非的“核禁忌”实际上反而增强了核威慑的必要性。虽然“核禁忌”在推动一系列核军控条约以及扩大无核武器区的建设过程中起到了一定的作用,但单纯依靠观念的力量并不能引领人类走向无核世界。只要引发地区冲突和安全困境的政治根源得不到化解,核武器作为战争的工具之一就有可能被使用。而为了确保国家安全和战略稳定,核威慑的必要性在短期内仍然无可替代。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| As a moral term, “nuclear taboo” seems appealing and inspiring. But the theory on the causal relationship between “nuclear taboo” and non-use of nuclear weapons faces great challenges. The Cold War history has demonstrated that there were many decision-makers who had ever considered using nuclear weapons after the nuclear bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Fortunately, they finally dismissed the idea after weighing the pros and cons. The political psychology reveals that the so-called taboo is just one of the many factors influencing the decision making process. When different interests are in conflict with one another, national security is always prioritized. In fact, the development of global nuclear posture after the Cold War has never been constrained by the taboo but raised the alert level of nuclear strikes. The US government is endeavoring to modernize its nuclear weapons. Both Russia and the United States have left the door open for nuclear strikes through their changing nuclear strategies and principles. The paradox of “nuclear taboo” has actually augmented the need for nuclear deterrence. Although such taboo played an important role in the negotiation of arms control treaties and the establishment of nuclear weapon free zones, it cannot lead to a nuclear-zero world. As long as the causes of regional conflicts and security dilemma rooted at the political level have not been eliminated, the chances are that nuclear weapons will still be used as a tool to win a war. In the near future, nuclear deterrence is still an indispensable strategy to guarantee national security and strategic stability. |
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