| 李捷,雍通.外国恐怖主义战斗人员转移与回流对中亚和俄罗斯的威胁[J].国际安全研究,2018,(1):107-129 |
| 外国恐怖主义战斗人员转移与回流对中亚和俄罗斯的威胁 |
| The Flowing and Returning Foreign Terrorist Fighters’ Threat: A Case Study of Central Asia and Russia |
| 投稿时间：2017-01-17 修订日期：2017-03-21 |
| DOI：10.14093/j.cnki.cn10-1132/d.2018.01.007 |
| 中文关键词: 外国恐怖主义战斗人员 人员转移 人员回流 安全威胁 俄罗斯安全 中亚安全 |
| 英文关键词: Foreign Terrorist Fighters, the flowing and returning FTFs, security threats, Russia’s security, Central Asia’s security |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 自2011年以来,中东局势的剧变特别是“伊斯兰国”的兴起,吸引了数万名外国恐怖主义战斗人员奔赴伊拉克和叙利亚参与战事。随着“伊斯兰国”日渐溃败,此波规模空前的外国恐怖主义战斗人员的转移和回流,将对国际安全造成深远的影响。仅从这些人员个体性的角度,难以全面评估此类安全威胁。应在“伊斯兰国”全球战略布局、本土恐怖组织结合当地议题的发展与重组以及外国恐怖主义战斗人员活动网络的联结等三个层面对其进行研究。在这三个层面的表现中,俄罗斯和中亚地区面临着日趋严峻的安全风险。一是两地外国恐怖主义战斗人员规模庞大,而且大多成为“伊斯兰国”及其部分分支的主力,并在世界各地多次发动恐怖袭击；二是组织性较强,“伊斯兰国”的效忠组织及分支将成为外国恐怖主义战斗人员回流及恐怖活动的重要载体,特别是“伊斯兰国呼罗珊分支”；三是他们的转移和回流,不仅推动“圣战”萨拉菲主义等暴力极端主义的渗透,而且将提升俄罗斯及中亚恐怖主义的国际化水平。所以,如何增强上海合作组织、集体安全条约组织等的反恐能力及合作水平,施行针对回流的外国恐怖主义战斗人员的改造政策,对于维护地区安全有着重要的意义。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Since 2011, the Middle East upheaval, especially the rise of the “Islamic State”, has attracted tens of thousands of foreign terrorist combatants to Iraq and Syria to engage in wars. As the “Islamic State” has met its Waterloo, the flowing and returning Foreign Terrorist Fighters (FTFs) will exert a far-reaching impact on international security. It is difficult to evaluate the acute and growing threat posed by Foreign Terrorist Fighters comprehensively if they are just viewed as separate fighters. The study should be conducted on the following three levels:the global strategic layout of the “Islamic State”, the development and restructuring of indigenous terrorist organizations in accordance with local issues and actual situations, and the linkage of the nets of Foreign Terrorist Fighters’ activities. On these three levels, Russia and Central Asia are facing increasingly grave security risks. First of all, both Russia and Central Asia have a tremendous scale of Foreign Terrorist Fighters, most of whom have been the main force of the “Islamic State” and its branches and have repeatedly launched terrorist attacks in various parts of the world. Second, Foreign Terrorist Fighters in both Russia and Central Asia are highly organized. The allegiance organizations and branches of the “Islamic State”, especially the “Khorasan”, will become important carriers for the flowing and returning Foreign Terrorist Fighters. Third, the flowing and returning Foreign Terrorist Fighters will not only accelerate the infiltration of violent extremism such as the Jihadi-Salafism but also enhance the internationalization of the local terrorism in Russia and Central Asia. Therefore, how to strengthen anti-terrorism capabilities of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Collective Security Treaty Organization and further enhance institutional cooperation among different countries is of paramount significance to the maintenance of regional security. |
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