| 李志斐.气候变化对青藏高原水资源安全的影响[J].国际安全研究,2018,(3):42-63 |
| 气候变化对青藏高原水资源安全的影响 |
| Analysis of the Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources Security in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau |
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| DOI：10.14093/j.cnki.cn10-1132/d.2018.03.003 |
| 中文关键词: 气候变化 青藏高原 冰川消融 水资源安全 |
| 英文关键词: climate change, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, glacier ablation, water resources security |
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| 摘要点击次数: 1325 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 青藏高原不仅是世界屋脊、亚洲水塔和地球第三极，也是中国重要的生态安全屏障和战略资源储备基地，更是资源政治与地缘政治的结合之处。青藏高原是世界上第三大淡水资源“储存库”，气候变化会加速高原地区的冰川消融，改变跨国界河流径流量的年度和季节性变化，增加水资源分配模式的不稳定性，从而加剧地区性水资源稀缺性危机，使地区性洪涝灾害增多，水治理难度提升。气候变化对青藏高原水资源安全的影响会产生连锁性的政治、经济与安全效应，不仅影响高原地区国家的水力开发计划与基础设施安全，加剧地缘政治博弈的复杂性，而且影响中国的海外水电投资，使中国的“一带一路”倡议和水利“十三五”发展规划的实施面临更多的国际压力与挑战。在气候变化的影响下，青藏高原水资源安全涉及十几亿人口的生存和发展问题，涉及亚洲的稳定与和平。对此，中国应积极实践构建人类命运共同体理念，在青藏高原水资源安全的维护上扮演更重要的角色，一方面在技术层面上加强对青藏高原水资源安全动态的深度调查与持续性跟踪研究，另一方面在政治层面上推动高原地区国家的气候治理合作与区域合作框架构建。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau enjoys a high reputation as the roof of the world, the Asian water tower and the third pole of the earth. It serves as an important bulwark against threats to China’s ecological security and a reserve base of strategic resources, where resource politics and geopolitics converge. As the world’s third largest repository of freshwater, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is subject to a series of changes. Climate change is accelerating glacier ablation and bringing about changes in the annual runoff and seasonal flow of trans-boundary rivers, which gives rise to more instability in the distribution of water resources that may exacerbate regional water scarcity and cause more flood disasters highlighting the need for improved water governance. The impact of climate change on the water resources security of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau will generate a chain of political, economic, and security effects. It will not only affect hydropower development plans and infrastructure construction of countries in the highlands and increase the complexity of geopolitical bargains, but also has a negative impact on China’s overseas hydropower investment and puts the Belt and Road Initiative and the 13th five-year water resources planning under more international pressure. Subjected to climate change, water resources security of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has become closely linked with the survival and development of over one billion people which plays a key role in regional stability and peace. In this regard, China should proactively put into practice the concept of building a community of shared future for mankind and play a more important part in safeguarding water resources security of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Technically speaking, in-depth investigation and consistent tracking research on water resources of the plateau should be strengthened. Politically speaking, the regional climate change governance and cooperation framework need to be further improved. |
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