| 杨辰博.国内武装冲突的域外情境：策略互动视角[J].国际安全研究,2019,37(1):89-114 |
| 国内武装冲突的域外情境：策略互动视角 |
| Internal Armed Conflicts in an Extraterritorial Context: A Strategic Interaction Perspective |
| 修订日期：2018-05-21 |
| DOI：10.14093/j.cnki.cn10–1132/d.2019.01.004 |
| 中文关键词: 内战 叛乱资助 反政府武装越境 强制行动 策略互动 |
| 英文关键词: civil conflict, insurgent funding, insurgents’ border transgression, coercion, strategic interactions |
| 基金项目: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 内战中的反政府武装跨越国境开展抵抗行动将威胁区域安全。内部冲突的外部化成为目前国际安全领域研究的热点。针对与之相关的内战的域外情境，此文建立博弈模型分析内战当事国、跨境行动的反政府武装及其接收国之间的策略互动模式。当越境散逸的武装分子与接收国之间的实际关系存在信息不对称时，策略互动将给当事国内部武装冲突局势和两国关系带来多种可能的结果。当事国内部冲突风险和国家间冲突风险至少受到三方面影响。第一，接收国影响武装分子行动的能力。第二，当事国阻止叛乱受到接收国资助的行动强度。第三，两国之间的相互依赖程度等方面影响。一国内部冲突与政府间摩擦之间的关联性将为区域安全机制的调停或维和举措带来额外挑战。国际社会在应对冲突威胁的行动中需要精确识别内战外部化问题的具体策略环境，从而为推动各方达成长效和平方案做出实际贡献。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Anti-government armed forces crossing national borders to carry out resistance operations pose a tremendous threat to regional security. The externalization of internal conflicts has become a hot topic among researches in the field of international security. With regard to the extraterritorial context of internal armed conflicts, this paper aims to analyze the strategic interaction pattern among the target state, the insurgents and the host state by establishing a game theory model. The extraterritorial context of internal conflicts can sabotage both domestic stability of the target state and regional security. The game theory model developed by this paper tries to illustrate conflict risks in an extraterritorial context by focusing on strategic moves of the target state, the host state and the insurgents. When information asymmetry exists between the insurgents and the host state, strategic interactions will lead to several possible scenarios in regard to situations of armed conflicts and the bilateral relationship between the target state and the host state. The model tries to delineate possible conditions for different conflict dynamics. It is generally argued that the conditional factors include 1) the capacity of the host state to exert influence on insurgents’ behavior, 2) the ability of the target state to prevent the insurgents from receiving support from the host state, and 3) the extent of interdependence between the target state and the host state. The fact that the externalization of internal conflicts are interwoven with state-to-state hostility poses extra challenges for peacekeeping operations and the mediation efforts exerted by regional security mechanisms. Relevant states as well as international security institutions are supposed to discern the particular strategic context of each conflict, which contributes to the creation of long-term peacekeeping programmes. |
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