| 崔建树.特朗普政府重整核军备动因研究[J].国际安全研究,2019,(2):137-155 |
| 特朗普政府重整核军备动因研究 |
| An Analysis of the Trump Administration’s Motivation for Reshaping the Nuclear Armament of the United States |
| 投稿时间：2018-10-18 修订日期：2018-12-26 |
| DOI：10.14093/j.cnki.cn10-1132/d.2019.02.007 |
| 中文关键词: 特朗普政府 重整核军备 核武器系统现代化 核安全 |
| 英文关键词: the Trump administration, reshaping of nuclear armament, modernization of nuclear weapons system |
| 基金项目: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 特朗普当选美国第45任总统后致力于重整核军备，大力推进美国核武器系统的现代化。其奉行这一政策的主要动力有：美国认为，俄罗斯积极谋求世界大国地位，中国经济与军事实力迅猛发展，其他新兴大国的群体性崛起，世界政治重回大国地缘政治竞争，美国世界霸权地位面临严峻挑战；俄罗斯在冷战结束后把核力量作为追求世界大国地位的基石，不仅大力推进战略核武器的研制与部署，还重建战术核力量，中国的核力量现代化也取得了较大进展，朝鲜和伊朗在核力量建设方面也取得进展，美国对上述国家核力量发展高度疑虑；美国战略核力量因受精确打击威慑等军事学说的影响在国家安全中的地位降低，长期投入不足，核武器库老化严重；美国核力量部队因冷战后爆发核战争可能性降低，战备松懈，管理混乱。特朗普政府的重整核军备政策固然可以进一步提升美国战略核力量的优势地位，但它也会相对削弱美军常规力量优势，甚至会出现边际收益小于边际成本的情况。美国重整核军备必定会引发核军备竞赛，从而动摇全球战略稳定。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| After being elected as the 45th President of the United States, Donald Trump is committed to reshaping nuclear armament and vigorously promoting modernization of the US nuclear weapons system. The main driving forces behind this policy are that the United States believes that Russia is actively pursuing world power status, China’s economic and military power is growing rapidly, other emerging powers are rising collectively, world politics is returning to great-power geopolitical competition and the US global hegemony is faced with severe challenges. After the end of the Cold War, nuclear forces have been regarded as a cornerstone for Russia’s world power status. Russia makes every effort to promote its development and deployment of strategic nuclear weapons and tries to rebuild its tactical nuclear forces. At the same time, China’s nuclear weapons modernization has made considerable headway. North Korea and Iran have also made great progress in building their nuclear arsenal. These developments have aroused a lot of conjecture and surmise on the part of the United States. The US strategic nuclear forces have become less important in the US national security strategy as a result of such military doctrines as precision strike deterrence. Insufficient long-term investment and aging nuclear arsenal have also damaged the combat effectiveness of the US nuclear forces. Since the odds have been small that a nuclear war would break out after the Cold War, the US nuclear forces have slacked off in their combat readiness and been caught up in mismanagement. Although the Trump administration’s reshaping of the US nuclear armament can enhance the predominant position of the US strategic nuclear forces, it may also weaken the competitive edge of the US conventional military forces with the possibility that marginal gains are smaller than marginal costs. The US reshaping of its nuclear armament will inevitably trigger another round of nuclear arms race and endanger global strategic stability. |
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