| 沈晓晨.后“伊斯兰国”时期恐怖意识形态蔓延：一个新的讨论框架[J].国际安全研究,2019,(4):108-137 |
| 后“伊斯兰国”时期恐怖意识形态蔓延：一个新的讨论框架 |
| Probe on the Spread of Terror Ideology in the Post-IS Era: A New Paradigm |
| 修订日期：2018-11-19 |
| DOI：10.14093/j.cnki.cn10-1132/d.2019.04.005 |
| 中文关键词: “伊斯兰国” “基地”组织 萨拉菲-吉哈德主义 恐怖主义 意识形态 怀旧式叙事 |
| 英文关键词: ISIS, Al-Qaeda, the Salafi-jihadist ideology, terrorism, ideology, nostalgia narrative |
| 基金项目:本文系中国-上海合作组织国际司法交流合作培训基地研究基金项目“中亚地区安全形势研判——基本变量与核心议题”（项目编号：18SHJD009）与杨恕教授主持国家社科基金“一带一路”专项项目“中亚五国研究与数据库建设”（项目批准号：17VDL003）、国家社科基金重点项目“涉疆反恐形势、机制与对策研究”（项目批准号：15AZD018） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 当前，国际联军打击“伊斯兰国”战事已进入尾声，然而，地面战场的失败并不意味着“伊斯兰国”思想的消亡。从萨拉菲-吉哈德主义极端意识形态发展脉络框架下考察，“伊斯兰国”在这一思想脉络中的独特历史地位塑造了它当前与未来的思想发展方式。国际社会需要认识到，当前反恐战争所面对的“战败者”可能并不认为自己已经失败，其意识形态过去近半个世纪危机式发展赋予了“伊斯兰国”面对失败的独特抵抗能力。“基地”组织在2011年被击溃后的历史也证明，在可预见的未来，“伊斯兰国”将很有可能继续在扩大其基本怀旧式叙事、赋予战败以合法性的同时，还将通过“全球恐怖商标”下的“特许经营”模式，将一种“暴力即思想”的恐怖思想内核进一步扩散并升级。国际社会打击“伊斯兰国”战争，可能刚刚到一个需要进行“中期评估”的时候，这场战争远未结束。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The fight against ISIS by the coalition forces has come to an end. However, serious defeats on the battlefield don’t necessarily mean the demise of the ISIS ideology. Under the framework of the evolution of Salafi jihadism, the unique historical position held by ISIS in this extreme ideology has shaped its current and future way of thinking. The international community should be fully aware that the “defeated” ISIS in the current war on terrorism may not consider himself a loser since the ideology has empowered ISIS with unique resilience against temporary failures. Meanwhile, the Al-Qaeda’s collapse in 2011 has proved that ISIS, in the foreseeable future, will be most likely to continue its “nostalgia narrative” and make efforts to legitimize its defeat, further upgrade and diffuse the kernel of its terrorist thought featuring “violence equals ideology” through the “franchise model” under a global terror brand. The counter-terrorism war against ISIS launched by the international community has just progressed to a mid-term assessment, for the war is far from over. |
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