| 兰江,姜文玉.进攻性联盟、模糊性威慑与AUKUS的战略性扩张[J].国际安全研究,2022,(2):47-77 |
| 进攻性联盟、模糊性威慑与AUKUS的战略性扩张 |
| Offensive Alliance, Ambiguous Deterrence and AUKUS’s Strategic Expansion |
| 修订日期：2022-01-05 |
| DOI：10.14093/j.cnki.cn10-1132/d.2022.02.002 |
| 中文关键词: 美英澳三边安全伙伴关系 利益均衡论 进攻性联盟 模糊性威慑 战略性扩张 |
| 英文关键词: AUKUS, balance of interest theory, offensive alliance, ambiguous deterrence, strategic expansion |
| 基金项目:本文系国家社会科学基金西部项目“疫情与印太视域下印度经略多边安全机制研究”（项目编号：21XGJ014）、云南省社会科学院中国（昆明）南亚东南亚研究院重点优势学科“印度洋研究”（项目编号：2020 XKJS 04）和贵州省哲学社会科学规划课题“后疫情时代印度对外战略的调整及其对中国的影响”（项目编号：21GZZD16）的阶段性研究成果。感谢《国际安全研究》匿名审稿专家提出的宝贵而专业的审稿及修改意见，文责自负。 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 2021年9月15日，美国、英国和澳大利亚建立三边安全伙伴关系(AUKUS)。美英澳三国基于追求权力最大化、改变既有国际秩序的扩张性动机，构建进攻性联盟。美国企图巩固印太地区霸权；英国试图提升印太地区影响力，推动“全球英国”构想；澳大利亚希图扩张在印太地区的威慑力，强化南太平洋区域强国地位。AUKUS的威慑功能具有模糊性，主要体现在威慑对象及触发条件的模糊性。其模糊性威慑主要包括模糊性威慑的信号功能、震慑功能、作战功能、信息和情报共享功能、军工合作功能。AUKUS通过模糊性威慑功能实现美国在印太地区的战略性扩张；威胁中国国家安全和阻挠中国统一进程；诱使印度深化与三国战略合作；引发东盟国家意见分歧；加速欧盟防务自主进程；削弱国际核不扩散机制，恶化地区安全形势，对全球及地区安全局势产生消极影响。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The United States, the United Kingdom and Australia have forged a trilateral security partnership (AUKUS) on September 15, 2021. Based on Schweller’s balance of interests theory, supplemented by Tang Shiping’s revision of Schweller’s classification of state types, it can be seen that the formation of such an offensive alliance is driven by expansionist motives of the three countries aiming to realize the maximization of their power and change the established international order. By establishing this offensive alliance, the United States attempts to consolidate its hegemony in the Indo-Pacific region, the United Kingdom seeks to enhance its regional influence and promote its “Global Britain” concept, and Australia plans to strengthen its regional deterrence and entrench its position as a regional power in the South Pacific. Viewed from deterrence targets and triggering conditions, the deterrence function of AUKUS is ambiguous, which is mainly reflected in its signaling function, intimidation function, operational function, intelligence sharing function, and military-industrial cooperation function. AUKUS, by virtue of its ambiguous deterrence function, will help the US realize its strategic expansion in the Indo-Pacific region, thus threatening China’s national security and obstructing the country’s reunification, inducing India to deepen its strategic cooperation with the three countries and intensifying differences of opinion among ASEAN countries. It will also accelerate the process of EU defense autonomy, weaken the nuclear non-proliferation regime, exacerbate regional security concerns and exert a negative impact on the global and regional security situation. |
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