文章摘要
曾向红,王昊语.伺“机”而动:机会窗口视角下土耳其对第二次纳卡冲突的介入[J].国际安全研究,2023,(2):49-80
伺“机”而动:机会窗口视角下土耳其对第二次纳卡冲突的介入
Waiting in the Wings: Turkish Involvement in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict from the Perspective of Windows of Opportunity
  修订日期:2022-12-20
DOI:10.14093/j.cnki.cn10-1132/d.2023.02.003
中文关键词: 土耳其  第二次纳卡冲突  机会窗口  政治机会结构  地区安全
英文关键词: Turkey, second Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the situation in the Caucasus, window of opportunity, political opportunity structure, regional security
基金项目:
作者单位
曾向红 兰州大学政治与国际关系学院 兰州 730000 
王昊语 兰州大学政治与国际关系学院 兰州 730000 
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中文摘要:
      在面临多重风险的情况下,土耳其为何仍强势介入第二次纳卡冲突?作者尝试运用“机会窗口”的理论框架予以解释,认为土耳其之所以强势介入纳卡冲突,离不开对“机会窗口”的认知与把握。“机会窗口”涉及危机事件的出现、国际形势变化与国内政治动员三个方面的因素。阿塞拜疆与亚美尼亚边境冲突这一危机事件,是促使土耳其在综合考虑国内外因素后启动相关行动的“催化剂”。土耳其考虑的国际因素包括南高加索地区大国博弈、阿塞拜疆与亚美尼亚实力对比的影响;土耳其国内也出现了推动介入的“机会窗口”,包括政治制度变迁与精英联盟变化、主流文化思潮的变化、与冲突国家关系的变化等方面。它们合力推动土政府启动内部政治动员,从而赋予土耳其干预纳卡冲突以合法性,进而有利于土政府把握住干预的机会。通过对土耳其在纳卡冲突前后伺“机”而动的过程进行梳理,不仅能对其“鲁莽”的干预行动予以合理解释,而且可更深入地理解土耳其政府近年来实施的“进取性”外交政策。
英文摘要:
      Turkey’s high-profile involvement in the second Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which broke out in September 2020, epitomizes Turkey’s risky moves in the South Caucasus. Why did Turkey choose to intervene in the conflict when faced with multiple risks? Applying the “window of opportunity” framework to the explanation of this phenomenon, this paper argues that Turkey’s aggressive involvement in the second Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is inseparable from its awareness and grasp of the “window of opportunity.” The “window of opportunity” involves factors like emergence of “crisis events,” changes in the international situation and domestic political mobilization. The emergence of the crisis event of the Azerbaijan-Armenia border conflict was the catalyst for Turkey to initiate relevant actions after an overall consideration of domestic and international factors. The international factors considered by Turkey at that time included the implications of the game among major powers in the South Caucasus and the power contrast between Azerbaijan and Armenia. There were also domestic factors for the Turkish intervention: a series of changes in its political system and elite alliances, changes in mainstream cultural trends, and changes in its relations with the countries in conflict. These changes jointly prompted the Turkish government to launch internal political mobilization, which further gave legitimacy to the Turkish intervention in the second Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and facilitated the Turkish government’s actions to seize the opportunity. Analyzing the processes of Turkey’s waiting in the wings before and after the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict can not only rationalize its “reckless” intervention, but also provide a deeper understanding of the “aggressive” foreign policies implemented by the Turkish government in recent years.
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