| 胡宇光,郑先武.经济风险的战争效应：安全跨域外溢机制研究[J].国际安全研究,2023,(4):29-56 |
| 经济风险的战争效应：安全跨域外溢机制研究 |
| The War Effects of Economic Risks: A Study on the Mechanism of Security Cross-Sector Spillovers |
| 投稿时间：2023-03-23 修订日期：2023-05-18 |
| DOI：10.14093/j.cnki.cn10-1132/d.2023.04.002 |
| 中文关键词: 新综合安全观 经济风险 战争 跨域外溢 二阶段论 |
| 英文关键词: comprehensive security analysis, economic risks, warfare, cross-sector spillovers, two-stage argument |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 巴里.布赞的新综合安全分析框架提供了安全跨域外溢的分析方法，克服了不同领域的安全研究相互割裂的局限。文章基于新综合安全观的视角分析经济风险的战争效应，提出“二阶段论”的理论框架，将经济风险促成战争的过程分为经济安全和军事安全两个阶段。第一阶段通常是线性逻辑，经济风险通过影响一国经济基本面演变为经济威胁；第二阶段是复杂的多线程逻辑，经济威胁可能通过激励和诱发两种机制作用于军事安全领域，产生或加强实力—安全困境、破窗困境、存续困境和防御困境等四种困境，最终促成战争爆发。二阶段论在现实中有五种运行逻辑，分别是直接与军事安全相关、效率与安全的矛盾、货币霸权的衰落、经济依附和(国际)金融危机，历史案例为这五种逻辑提供了佐证。由此证明，二阶段论亦可作为新综合安全观在中观层面的补充与完善。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Barry Buzan's comprehensive security analysis framework provides an analytical approach to cross-sector spillovers, thus overcoming the limitations of fragmented security research in different fields. This article analyzes the war effects of economic risks from the perspective of comprehensive security and proposes a theoretical framework featuring a“two- stage argument," which divides the process of economic risks giving rise to war into economic security stage and military security stage. The first stage is usually characterized by linear logic, where economic risks deteriorate into economic threats. The second stage is in line with complex multi- threaded logic, where economic threats exert influence on military security through “two mechanisms," create or aggravate“four dilemmas," and ultimately lead to the outbreak of war. The two-stage argument has five kinds of operational logic, namely, the direct relationship with military security, the contradiction between efficiency and security, the decline of monetary hegemony, economic dependency, and (international) financial crisis. These five kinds of logic are fully supported by historical evidence. Overall, the two stage argument can be understood as a supplement and improvement of Barry Buzan's comprehensive security analysis framework at the meso level. |
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