| 张煌,杜雁芸.“星链”军事化发展及其对全球战略稳定性的影响[J].国际安全研究,2023,(5):29-53 |
| “星链”军事化发展及其对全球战略稳定性的影响 |
| Militarization of Starlink and Its Impact on Global Strategic Stability |
| 修订日期：2023-07-05 |
| DOI：10.14093/j.cnki.cn10-1132/d.2023.05.002 |
| 中文关键词: 星链 太空安全 首攻稳定性 危机稳定性 军备竞赛稳定性 |
| 英文关键词: Starlink, space security, first-strike stability, crisis stability, arms race stability |
| 基金项目: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 美国推进“星链”军事化发展，使得外空安全和全球战略稳定面临严峻挑战，必须对其潜在风险进行提前研判和评估。较之传统外空装备，“星链”具有多维一体的战场网络覆盖能力、延伸全杀伤链的集成性功能以及面向实战化的信息作战优势，将对全球战略稳定格局带来三大冲击：一是冲击首攻稳定性，“星链”既强化了美国先发制人的战略突袭能力，又弥补了军用太空资产固有的脆弱性，提升了美国太空攻防的整体能力；二是冲击危机稳定性，“星链”会加剧外层空间爆发“意外战争”的风险，同时，针对“星链”的制衡与反制措施可能造成外空危机的快速升级，并由战略领域向常规领域扩散；三是冲击军备竞赛稳定性，“星链”具有攻防一体和军民两用属性，可能加剧军备发展的“安全困境”，引发技术扩散和军备竞赛风险。“星链”技术系统的不透明性和不可预测性，导致有关军备控制的信心建立措施难以施行。应对“星链”军事化发展对于全球战略稳定的挑战，必须吸纳涵盖商业部门在内的多元化安全治理主体，构建核、外空、网络和人工智能等多域联动的安全治理机制，推动面向未来的可持续安全治理。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The United States is advancing the militarization of Starlink, which poses serious challenges to outer space security and global strategic stability. Therefore, it is of great necessity to conduct early research and assessments of its potential risks. Compared with traditional outer space equipment, Starlink is equipped with multi-dimensional and integrated capacities to cover the battlefield network, an integrated function capable of extending the entire chain of destruction, and an advantage in information warfare oriented towards actual combats. It will exert three major impacts on the pattern of global strategic stability. Firstly, it will undermine first-strike stability in that Starlink not only strengthens the United States’ preemptive strike capabilities, but also makes up for the inherent vulnerabilities of US military space assets, which greatly enhances the overall US space offensive and defensive capacities. Secondly, Starlink will exert great influence on crisis stability due to the fact that it would exacerbate the risk of an “accidental war” in outer space. At the same time, countermeasures against Starlink may give rise to a rapid escalation of the outer space crisis and make it spread from the strategic field to the conventional field. Thirdly, Starlink will impact the stability of arms race. Now that Starlink is equipped with both offensive and defensive capacities, serving dual military and civilian use, it may exacerbate the “security dilemma” of armament development and trigger risks of technology proliferation and arms races. The opacity and unpredictability of the Starlink technology system make it difficult to implement confidence-building measures in arms control. To address the challenges posed by the militarization of Starlink to global strategic stability, it is imperative to incorporate diversified security governance entities, including the commercial sector, to build a multi-domain linkage security governance mechanism in the fields of nuclear, outer space, cyber network and artificial intelligence, and promote sustainable security governance for the future. |
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