| 薛亮.美国“一体化威慑”的战略逻辑：以AUKUS的演进为范例[J].国际安全研究,2023,(5):54-80 |
| 美国“一体化威慑”的战略逻辑：以AUKUS的演进为范例 |
| Strategic Logic of the US Integrated Deterrence: Taking the Evolution of AUKUS as an Example |
| 修订日期：2023-06-20 |
| DOI：10.14093/j.cnki.cn10-1132/d.2023.05.003 |
| 中文关键词: 大国竞争 一体化威慑 AUKUS 区域安全 |
| 英文关键词: great power competition, integrated deterrence, AUKUS, regional security |
| 基金项目: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 在大国竞争背景下，美国拜登政府正式提出并实践“一体化威慑”战略概念。“一体化威慑”意味着通过跨越领域、区域、冲突域、部门、盟国和伙伴等五个维度的“一体化”调度，统筹“拒止性威慑”“韧性威慑”“直接和集体施加成本进行威慑”三种威慑逻辑，针对特定的竞争对手和安全问题施加威慑。在战略逻辑上，美国以“不对称多极”格局为基础，以海洋特别是西太平洋为主要场域，以中国为主要威慑对象并以“印太”为建构区域，通过“网络化”的作用方式，灵活统筹并“量身定制”地施加威慑。在“印太战略”推进下，“美英澳三边安全伙伴关系”(AUKUS)成为美国实施“一体化威慑”的范例。AUKUS由美国联合最亲密盟友发起，针对美国所谓的战略竞争对手中国，以西太平洋特别是南海、台海、东海为战略前沿，通过将“欧洲—大西洋”引入“印度—太平洋”来加强跨区域威慑，并以“全政府”方式运作，囊括核潜艇、高超声速等先进能力、网络和太空等重要领域，考虑不同冲突形态，不断取得进展。然而，AUKUS的进一步推进将面临诸多“一体化威慑”固有的内在和外在困难，未来仍存在不确定性。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Against the backdrop of intensifying global power dynamics, the Biden administration of the US has formally introduced and put into practice the strategic concept of integrated deterrence. This concept involves an orchestrated deployment across five distinct dimensions, including major domains, geographical regions, conflict spectra, governmental departments, and collaborations with allies and partners. It has harmonized three deterrence principles, namely “deterrence by denial,” “deterrence by resilience” and “deterrence by direct and collective cost imposition,” so as to effectively dissuade specific competitors and address security concerns. Rooted in the architecture of “asymmetric multipolarity,” this concept focuses on the oceanic realm, particularly the Western Pacific, with China being regarded as a main deterrence target. The Indo-Pacific region is designated as the core area for implementing this concept by employing networked operational approaches, adaptable overarching planning, and tailor-made tactics. Integral to the US Indo-Pacific Strategy, the Trilateral Security Partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States (AUKUS) stands as an exemplar of integrated deterrence in action. Conceived by the US and its closest allies, AUKUS is intended to counter the so-called strategic challenges posed by China. It strategically hinges on the Western Pacific, with areas like the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, and the East China Sea being strategic frontiers, extending the Euro-Atlantic influence into the Indo-Pacific to fortify deterrence across regions with a “whole-of-government” mode of action. This cooperative venture spans multiple domains and encompasses nuclear submarines, hypersonic technology, cyber capabilities, outer space activities, etc. By taking account of diverse conflict spectra, AUKUS has made notable strides in its deterrence endeavors. Nonetheless, the future advancement of AUKUS is beset by escalating internal and external challenges inherent to the concept of integrated deterrence, which will cast a veil of uncertainty over its future trajectory. |
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