| 秦立志.安全困境、战略自主与风险偏好的惯性探究[J].国际安全研究,2023,(6):51-78 |
| 安全困境、战略自主与风险偏好的惯性探究 |
| An Exploration of Security Dilemma, Strategic Autonomy and Risk Preference Inertia |
| 修订日期：2023-10-12 |
| DOI：10.14093/j.cnki.cn10-1132/d.2023.06.003 |
| 中文关键词: 战略自主性 风险偏好 战略惯性 安全困境 战略稳定 |
| 英文关键词: strategic autonomy, risk preference, strategic inertia, security dilemma, strategic stability |
| 基金项目: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为什么一个大国会从“风险规避型”偏好向“风险承担型”偏好转移？大国风险规避或风险承担的战略偏好并不总是与实力对比或战略环境相匹配，有时在现状收益递减或相对权力优势最大化时选择克制战略，却在仍处于现状收益递增或权力劣势时选择冒进战略。对于解释风险偏好的这一不确定性特征，可通过对国家战略自主性、战略动机、安全困境和风险偏好惯性等进行关联性考察，采取兼具体系变量与单元变量的综合路径，探究非本意的系统效应结果。通过对近代欧洲多极体系与美苏冷战两极体系的结构性和进程性考察，验证了自利德尔.哈特到保罗.肯尼迪的目标—手段的动态平衡对大国应对战略风险的重要性，并在一定程度上丰富了战略自主性与风险偏好的惯性研究。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Why does a major power shift from a “risk-averse” preference to a “risk- taking” preference? The risk-averse or risk-taking strategic preferences of major powers do not always match power comparisons or strategic environments in that they sometimes opt for a strategy of restraint when the gains from the status quo are diminishing or the relative power advantage is being maximized, while showing a preference for a strategy of aggressiveness when the gains from the status quo are increasing or the power disadvantage still persists. To explain this uncertainty feature of risk preferences, unintended systemic effect outcomes can be explored through a correlational examination of national strategic autonomy, strategic motivation, security dilemma, and risk preference inertia by adopting an integrative explanatory path that combines both systemic and unitary variables. Through the structural and processual examination of the multi-polar system of modern Europe and the bipolar system of the Cold War, this paper aims to verify the importance of the ends-means dynamic equilibrium evolved from Liddell Hart to Paul Kennedy for major powers to cope with strategic risks, and intends to innovate strategic theories concerning the studies of strategic autonomy and risk preference inertia. |
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