| 杨明真,张发林.制度变迁与权力博弈：国际货币体系的双重困境[J].国际安全研究,2024,(3):98-125 |
| 制度变迁与权力博弈：国际货币体系的双重困境 |
| Institutional Transformation and Power Games：Dual Dilemmas of International Monetary System |
| 修订日期：2024-03-11 |
| DOI：10.14093/j.cnki.cn10-1132/d.2024.03.005 |
| 中文关键词: 国际货币体系 国际货币安全 国际制度变迁 权力政治博弈 |
| 英文关键词: international monetary system, international monetary security, international institutional transformation, power games |
| 基金项目: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 在国际秩序变革期，国际货币体系的变迁和安全状况出现新的特征和问题。在体系演进的不同阶段，国际货币体系变革的核心逻辑不同。在运行之初和体系修正时期，制度变迁是核心逻辑，而在霸权护持和体系重构时期，权力政治是核心逻辑。由此，对国际货币体系变迁的解释需要综合考虑权力逻辑和制度逻辑在国际货币体系不同阶段的相互作用和共同影响。从制度逻辑而言，国际货币体系长期存在的诸多问题依然未能得到有效解决，甚至有更加恶化的趋势，主要包括主权货币充当国际货币的困局、全球宏观经济失衡与调整不力、汇率波动与失调持续加剧、全球货币治理组织低效等，国际货币制度变迁的“均衡困境”持续存在。同时，当前国际货币体系已步入霸权护持期，权力博弈和大国竞争更加显著，国际货币体系变革又陷入新困境，即国际货币体系的主导国美国无意或无力修正体系的根本性问题和解决其结构性矛盾，转而运用多种方略维护美元霸权，但这些霸权方略的反噬效应，使国际货币体系变得更加不稳定和不安全。国际货币制度变迁和权力政治博弈逻辑下的新旧困境交叠，维护国际与国家货币安全面临更加严峻的挑战，由此也为相关研究带来一个新的研究议程。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| During the transformation period of international order, the international monetary system (IMS) has witnessed important changes and problems. Different stages of the evolution of the IMS over the past decades have been characterized by different core logics. Institutional change was the core logic of the IMS at the beginning of its operation and during the period of system revision, while power politics becomes the key word during the period of hegemonic maintenance and system reconstruction. Therefore, interpretations for the reforms of the international monetary system need a dynamic theoretical perspective, which takes a comprehensive consideration of the interactions between institutional logic and power logic as well as their joint influence at different stages of the IMS evolution. Instead of being resolved, many long-standing institutional problems have shown growing signs of deterioration. These include the single world currency model, global macroeconomic imbalances, exchange rate fluctuations and disorders, as well as inefficient global monetary governance. The “equilibrium dilemma” demonstrated in the IMS institutional evolution still persists. Currently, the IMS has entered a period of hegemonic maintenance when power games and great power competition becomes more significant. The United States, the dominant country of the IMS, has no intention or capability to handle the fundamental problems of the system and solve its structural contradictions. What the U.S. endeavors to do is to maintain the dollar's hegemony, which puts the IMS in a more unstable and insecure situation. Under the logic of institutional transformation and power games, the overlapping of the old and new dilemmas poses more severe challenges for the maintenance of international and national monetary security, which brings about a new research agenda for future studies. |
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