| 王蕾.历史比较视野下自主武器军控规范争论及其走向[J].国际安全研究,2024,(5):109-134 |
| 历史比较视野下自主武器军控规范争论及其走向 |
| A Comparative Historical Analysis on Norm Contestation over Arms Control of Autonomous Weapons and Its Trend |
| 修订日期：2024-06-24 |
| DOI：10.14093/j.cnki.cn10-1132/d.2024.05.005 |
| 中文关键词: 自主武器 军备控制 规范竞争 人工智能 技术不确定性 |
| 英文关键词: autonomous weapons, arms control, norm contestation, artificial intelligence, technological uncertainty |
| 基金项目: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 科学技术的快速迭代，尤其是人工智能技术的发展使军备控制发生重要变化。在围绕致命性自主武器系统发生的规范争论中，各方面对未来技术发展及其风险后果的不确定性提出竞争性的预期，就预防性的军控规范展开博弈。与杀伤人员地雷、集束弹药等军控议题领域的规范博弈相似，自主武器规范争论围绕一个核心问题展开：自主武器的使用可能产生的人道主义风险与道德后果，究竟是源于其固有特性，还是国家开发与使用自主武器的行为方式？为倡导制定具有法律约束力的国际公约以禁止和管控自主武器，跨国倡议网络尝试界定自主武器的固有特性，论证其与负面后果之间的因果联系，但未来技术不确定性使其面临一定困境。拒绝制定国际公约的美国则尝试利用这种不确定性，证明国家可以通过引导和调整开发与使用自主武器的方式，减小乃至消除其风险与后果，但其论辩同样在一定程度上受到不确定性的影响。这对自主武器规范争论的走向产生重要影响，使之明显有别于其他军控领域。双方在支持者的争取方面处于相对平衡的态势，同时双方各自构建的阵营均具有内部异质性。规范争论不再是界限清晰、立场分明的两个阵营之间的对抗，一个观点立场复杂交错的关系网络已然形成。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Rapid technological changes, especially the fast development of artificial intelligence, have brought about a new trend in arms control. Actors in normative contestation over lethal autonomous weapons systems have to deal with the uncertainty of technological change and its potential risks. They argue against each other with competing expectations for the future, aiming at setting preventive norms of arms control. Similar to the debates over anti-personnel landmines and cluster munitions, norm contestation over autonomous weapons revolves around a central question: do the potential humanitarian and moral consequences of autonomous weapons stem from their inherent characteristics or from the way States develop and use the weapons? The transnational advocacy networks aiming to reach a legally binding international convention that bans and regulates autonomous weapons seek to define the inherent characteristics of autonomous weapons and argue for a causal link between them and the negative consequences. The argument, however, is challenged by technological uncertainty. The United States rejects the proposal of formulating a legally binding instrument and contends that taking appropriate measures in the development and use of autonomous weapons can help reduce or even eliminate the humanitarian consequences. Normative contestation over autonomous weapons is distinctly different from the norm-making process of other arms control issues. In the contestation, both sides have attracted certain supporters and their influences are relatively balanced. Due to the fact that each side is internally heterogeneous, the norm contestation is no longer a confrontation between two camps with distinct standpoints and clear boundaries. Instead, a complex and intertwined network of viewpoints and positions has emerged. |
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