| 王耀辉.第三方调停国应何时介入国家间暴力冲突？[J].国际安全研究,2024,(6):52-73 |
| 第三方调停国应何时介入国家间暴力冲突？ |
| When Should Third-Party States Mediate Violent Interstate Conflicts?—A Case Study on China’s Mediation between Saudi Arabia and Iran |
| 投稿时间：2024-08-25 修订日期：2024-10-01 |
| DOI：10.14093/j.cnki.cn10-1132/d.2024.06.003 |
| 中文关键词: 国际安全 中国外交 全球安全倡议 第三国调停 沙伊和解 |
| 英文关键词: international security, Chinese diplomacy, Global Security Initiative, third-party state mediation, Saudi-Iranian rapprochement |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 调停时机是影响调停成败的关键因素。学界对此虽有探讨，但何时开展调停能实现最优效果，尚无圆满解答。聚焦第三国对另外两国暴力冲突的调停，文章从私有信息、决胜能力、战略自主三个维度出发，提出冲突调停需满足三项充分条件，双方才会受利益驱动产生和解诉求，形成最佳调停时机。首先，双方战略决心和实力对比明确化，降低博弈的不确定性。其次，双方皆无决胜能力，处在无法选择的共存环境中，只得扭转诉诸武力的思维，寻求可持续相处之道。最后，双方降低对外部大国的过度依赖，增强自主安全治理能力。2023年3月，中国促成沙特阿拉伯与伊朗历史性和解的成功实践，是第三国调停国家间暴力冲突的典型案例。运用过程追踪法分析沙伊从对抗到和解的嬗变，发现中方调停正是开展于沙伊历经长期代理人战争后深知彼此强弱利害、无法决出胜负、自主安全能力有所提升之时。中国敏锐认知到沙伊冲突态势变化，及时劝和促谈，不仅对维护中东安全稳定作出重大贡献，而且为全球安全治理树立了政治解决热点问题的典范。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The timing for mediation can be decisive to the success or failure of mediation efforts. While lots of discussions on this subject have been made in the international relations academia, there is still no satisfactory answer to the question of when mediation can be carried out to achieve optimal results. Focusing on mediation by a third-party state in violent conflicts between two other states, this paper tends to construct a theoretical framework encompassing three dimensions, namely, private information, capacity to secure a decisive victory, and strategic autonomy. It argues that once the development of conflicts satisfies three sufficient conditions, the two states in conflict will be rationally incentivized to reach a peaceful settlement, which in turn creates a ripe opportunity for third-party mediation. In terms of private information, the evolution of conflicts reveals key information on the true balance of power and resolve of both parties, thus reducing uncertainty in security environment. As regards capacity to secure a decisive victory, if neither party is capable of winning out in the conflict and caught up in an inevitable “coexistence” situation, then it becomes a wise policy to alter the mindset of solving problems through violence and pursue a more sustainable bilateral relationship. As for strategic autonomy, both conflicting parties need to reduce their excessive dependence on external big countries and enhance capabilities to safeguard their own national security. China’s successful mediation of the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement in March 2023 is a typical case for third-party mediation of violent interstate conflicts. Employing the process-tracing method to analyze the “confrontation to reconciliation” evolution between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the paper has concluded that China’s mediation took place at a time when both states, with enhanced independence and after prolonged proxy wars, realized that the balance of power would lead neither party to secure a decisive victory. China precisely identified the turning point in the Saudi-Iranian confrontation and played a timely role in mediating an end to it. The mediation efforts of China have not only significantly promoted peace and stability in the Middle East, but also set a model for the political settlement of international conflicts. |
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