| 刁大明.从1.0到2.0：特朗普政府对华安全战略的延续与政策变化[J].国际安全研究,2025,(1):96-114 |
| 从1.0到2.0：特朗普政府对华安全战略的延续与政策变化 |
| From 1.0 to 2.0: Continuation of the Trump Administration’s Security Strategy Toward China and Its Policy Changes |
| 修订日期：2024-12-18 |
| DOI：10.14093/j.cnki.cn10-1132/d.2025.01.005 |
| 中文关键词: 特朗普2.0 战略竞争 对华安全战略 对华政策 中美关系 |
| 英文关键词: Trump 2.0, strategic competition, U.S. security strategy toward China, U.S.’ China policy, Sino-U.S. relations |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 2024年美国总统大选以第45任总统唐纳德.特朗普的回归落幕。从“特朗普1.0”到“特朗普2.0”的八年间，国际安全环境、中美关系、美国政经态势以及特朗普个人状态等都发生了重大变化。国际安全环境日益严峻并进入历史转折点；中美关系因美方对华战略竞争而陷入历史低谷；美国自身政治与社会持续撕裂且经济状况存在隐忧；美国国内期待“特朗普2.0”明确回应国内诉求；特朗普个人则在偏好商人思维的同时也凸显强势与遗产导向。比较而言，“特朗普2.0”的对华安全战略将突出延续性，将延续拜登政府的相关政策，体现为延续对华战略竞争、推进“拜登+特朗普”复合议程并继续将经贸议题置于对华战略竞争的核心地位。在延续战略之下，“特朗普2.0”的对华政策也有可能呈现出一些变化，表现为对外事务聚焦于俄乌冲突和巴以冲突而非中国、经贸作为个人偏好成为主线后的不可控性、国际与国内两个维度对其经贸政策制造的更大压力以及陷入历史低谷的中美关系面对新“特朗普冲击”的自限性。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The 2024 U.S. presidential election ended with the return of former President Donald Trump. In the eight years from “Trump 1.0” to “Trump 2.0”, the international security environment, Sino-U.S. relations, U.S. domestic political and economic dynamics, and Trump’s personal situation have undergone significant changes. The international security environment is becoming increasingly severe and has entered a historical turning point; Sino-U.S. relations have been going downhill due to the U.S. strategic competition against China; the U.S. is beset with political and social fragmentation as well as economic woes; the American public earnestly call for “Trump 2.0” to clearly respond to their demands; Trump, a deal-maker with a business mindset and a strong leadership style, has displayed an obvious inclination to leave his lasting legacy. Generally speaking, the security strategy of “Trump 2.0” toward China will feature stability and continuity: It will inherent Biden’s strategic competition approach toward China and promote the “Biden plus Trump” composite agenda, placing economic and trade issues at the core of its strategic competition against China. At the same time, China policies of Trump 2.0 may also show some changes, which are reflected in the focus shift in its foreign policies from China to the Ukrainian crisis and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the uncontrollability of the bilateral trade and economic relationship as a result of Trump’s volatile personality, greater pressure on Trump’s trade and economic policies at both international and domestic levels, and the self-limitation of Sino-U.S. relations in the face of the new “Trump shock”. |
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