| 秦渝斌.大国竞争态势、社会联盟与美国对竞争者的出口管制政策[J].国际安全研究,2025,(2):65-90 |
| 大国竞争态势、社会联盟与美国对竞争者的出口管制政策 |
| The Dynamics of Great Power Competition, Social Coalitions and the U.S. Export Controls on Competitors |
| 修订日期：2024-12-23 |
| DOI：10.14093/j.cnki.cn10-1132/d.2025.02.004 |
| 中文关键词: 出口管制 大国竞争 社会联盟 经济安全 美国外交 |
| 英文关键词: export control, great power competition, social coalitions, economic security, U.S. diplomacy |
| 基金项目: |
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| 摘要点击次数: 221 |
| 全文下载次数: 116 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 在不同的大国竞争态势中，美国的出口管制政策经历了数轮深刻的调整。出口管制既关涉美国的整体安全和经济利益，也牵扯不同产业的利益得失，是社会、国家和体系三个层次因素共同作用的结果。通过区分美国面临的不同大国竞争态势和社会联盟的政策影响力及偏好，可构建大国竞争态势左右社会联盟政策影响力和带动出口管制安全/经济效应，并导致美国对竞争对手出口管制调整的分析框架。在不同的大国竞争态势下，美国不同社会联盟影响政策的意愿和能力会产生不同程度的分化，出口管制的经济/安全效应凸显，从而推动美国对竞争者出口管制政策的变化。在大国竞争升级态势下，军工安全联盟的政策影响力显著上升，出口管制的安全效应凸显，带动美国加强对竞争者的出口管制；在大国竞争缓和态势下，科技商贸联盟的政策影响力上升，导致出口管制的经济效益凸显，推动美国放松对竞争者的出口管制。通过引入争议问题、质疑既有制度、劝服反对集团三个环节，社会联盟会推动政府调整对竞争者的出口管制。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In the context of different dynamics of great power competition, the U.S. export control policies have undergone several rounds of profound adjustments. Export controls not only affect the overall security and economic interests of the United States but also involve the gains and losses of different industries. It results from the interplay of factors at the societal, national and systemic levels. By distinguishing different great power competition dynamics and varied policy influence and preferences of social coalitions, an analytical framework can be constructed to show how the dynamics of great power competition affect the policy influence of social coalitions, drive the security/economic effects of export controls to become prominent, and lead to adjustments of U.S. export controls on competitors. In the context of the escalation of great power competition, the policy influence of the military-industrial coalition significantly increases and the security effects of export controls become prominent, driving the United States to strengthen its export controls on competitors. Under the situation of mitigated competition, the policy influence of the technology-commerce coalition rises, tipping the balance in favor of economic benefits and promoting the United States to relax its export controls on competitors. By introducing controversial issues, questioning existing institutions and persuading opposing groups, social coalitions will encourage the government to adjust its export controls over competitors |
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