文章摘要
阎学通.政治领导与大国崛起安全[J].国际安全研究,2016,(4):3-19
政治领导与大国崛起安全
Moral Realism and the Security Strategy for Rising China
投稿时间:2016-05-18  修订日期:2016-06-01
DOI:
中文关键词: 道义;现实主义;政治领导;崛起安全
英文关键词: morality; realism; political leadership; security strategy for rising powers
基金项目:
作者单位
阎学通 清华大学当代国际关系研究院,北京 ,100084 
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中文摘要:
      道义现实主义国际关系理论的核心原理是:决定大国兴衰的根本原因是大国的政治领导力,其本质是一国政府为适应不断变动的国际国内战略环境而进行改革的方向、决心与能力。根据道义现实主义原理,中国综合国力居世界第二位是中国制定崛起目标和策略的基础,符合国力基础的目标和战略就易于成功,而超越实力基础的目标和战略则会削弱中国的实力。道义现实主义认为,外交承诺与实力保持一致有利于提高国际战略信誉,从而减少国际社会对崛起国的恐惧和反对;为周边国家提供安全保障可获得对崛起国的战略支持;为减少崛起的国际阻力,崛起国应在新兴领域拓展利益范围而尽量避免在传统领域的利益冲突。在信息化时代,在网络空间拓展中国国际战略利益应成为中国主攻方向,网络战略应采取“走出去”原则而非为了安全的防御原则。在外部威胁不足以颠覆中国崛起的情况下,为防止中国的崛起半途夭折的重点将是防范国内的极左陷阱。“台独”正在成为中国崛起面临的首要威胁,中美在南海的战略竞争将长期化,朝鲜拥核是中国的东北亚地区政策法回避的既成事实。
英文摘要:
      The core principle of moral realist theory (MRT) of international relations is that the political leadership of great powers determines the fate of their rise or fall. It is essentially the direction, capability, determination a government exhibits in reforming and adjusting itself to changing international and domestic challenges. Therefore, as the second great power in terms of comprehensive strength, China should set its goals and implement its strategies on the basis of its international status if it is to improve its chance of successful rise. Quixotic conducts would only weaken its strength. As a result, according to the MRT, the promises China makes to the world should match its capability so as to increase its international credibility and reduce the fear and resistance of other states. Providing security assistance may win international support. In the current information age, China should also extend its security interests in newly emergent fields such as the cyber space rather than in traditional arenas, e.g. territory or territorial waters, to avoid international resistance. As such, the right strategy for China to take in this major competing field should be to take an outward-looking stance rather than be inward-looking or conservatively confine itself to defensive purposes only. After all, the substantive threat to rising China does not come from the outside, but rather from the extreme-leftist forces at home, even in context of the increasingly greater threat to the cross-strait peace posed by Taiwan’s independence attempt, the protracted Sino-American rivalry and strategic competitions in South China Sea, and the fait accompli of a nuclearly militarized North Korea.
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