| 谢超.暴力方式与民心向背：寻找治理族群叛乱的条件组合[J].国际安全研究,2018,(4):101-126 |
| 暴力方式与民心向背：寻找治理族群叛乱的条件组合 |
| Violence Type and Popular Support: In Search for Conditions to Defeat Ethnic Separatist Insurgency |
| 修订日期：2017-10-11 |
| DOI：10.14093/j.cnki.cn10-1132/d.2018.04.004 |
| 中文关键词: 族群叛乱 族群恐怖主义 有区别暴力 无区别暴力 治理族群叛乱 |
| 英文关键词: ethnic insurgency, ethnic terrorism, discriminate violence, indiscriminate violence |
| 基金项目: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 治理族群叛乱的目标既包括土地的控制，也包括人的控制，这是治理族群叛乱区别于其他形式叛乱的特点之一。人的控制实际包含两个内容，既包括人心向背，也包括人员数量的控制。人心向背关乎民众支持，而争取民众支持的必要性在于，虽然拥有民众支持并不必然导致叛乱的平息，但是没有民众支持是不能平息叛乱的。在族群叛乱已经发生的情况下，国家政府只有赢得更多当地民众的支持，才能成功治理叛乱。根据冲突各方的暴力行为方式及其对当地民众支持的影响，成功平息叛乱应具备国家政府有区别使用暴力、叛乱组织无区别使用暴力、当地温和派主导平叛行动等三个必要条件，以争取更多民众支持。这三个条件构成的条件组合，可以有效控制和减少叛乱组织能够招募到的人员数量，只要国家政府的平叛战略能够有效控制叛乱组织所招募的叛乱人员数量，叛乱组织就将走向衰败并最终消亡，也就是说这一条件组合能够成为国家政府成功平叛的一个充分条件。通过对结合俄罗斯、印度和西班牙等国家治理族群叛乱的经验和教训的分析，进一步证实了以上观点。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| This paper proposes that it requires both land and population control in addressing ethnic separatist insurgency, the latter of which actually involves both winning popular support and controlling the manpower. Popular support is essential to waging a successful counterinsurgency. Although it is not the only factor that guarantees the success, counterinsurgency operations will surely fail without support from the public. Therefore, when confronting the ethnic separatist insurgencies, the national government should endeavor to win more popular support from the local people. Based on the violence types and the thus resulted impact on popular support, this paper puts forward that there are three necessary conditions to defeat ethnic insurgency, which include the discriminate use of force by the national government, the indiscriminate use of force by insurgents, and the counterinsurgency should be dominated by local moderates. The combination of above three will be sufficient in controlling and reducing the possible recruits by insurgency groups and the insurgency groups will eventually perish when it cannot recruit enough insurgents to replace those lost in counterinsurgency operations. This paper demonstrates the above points by looking into the counterinsurgency cases by countries including Russia, India, and Spain. |
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