文章摘要
胡键.“战略时间差”与中国的战略安全[J].国际安全研究,2022,(3):57-78
“战略时间差”与中国的战略安全
Study on “Strategic Time Gap” and China’s Strategic Security
投稿时间:2022-01-15  修订日期:2022-03-08
DOI:10.14093/j.cnki.cn10-1132/d.2022.03.003
中文关键词: 战略时间差  战略安全  国家命运  战略机遇期
英文关键词: strategic time gap, strategic security, future of the Chinese nation, period of strategic opportunities
基金项目:
作者单位
胡键 上海社会科学院软实力研究中心 上海 200020 
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中文摘要:
      国际关系中的时间包括时间点、时间段和时间过程。从国际博弈的时间长度来看,既有宏观时间的博弈,也有微观时间的博弈,二者都有可能产生战略性的影响。纵观古今中外历史,把握“战略时间差”虽然不一定能做到“不战而屈人之兵”,但能够做到以更小的代价获得博弈的优势地位。中国的战略安全是与战略机遇期联系在一起的,过去四十多年中国发展和大国成长战略机遇的获得主要由于技术革命、权力转移和西方的战略失误三个因素,但中国在新时代需要主动通过把握和运用“战略时间差”来塑造战略机遇。从总体战略来看,中国仍然需要争取和平的国际环境,以彰显中国在走向世界舞台中央时的世界担当;要尽力争取所有的国际博弈尤其中美博弈为正和博弈,以化解既有主导国对正在崛起的中国的担心和不信任;关键还要着力中国的内部发展,这是获得战略机遇期的实质性内容。把握所有“战略时间差”的最终目标是实现中华民族的伟大复兴,在世界舞台上和平崛起。
英文摘要:
      The concept of time in international relations includes time point, time period and time process. In view of the time length of international gaming, there exist macro-time gaming and micro-time gaming, both of which may exert strategic impact. Throughout history, a good command of the “strategic time gap” may not necessarily achieve the result of “subduing the enemy without fighting”, but it will undeniably be able to gain an advantageous position in the game at a lower cost. China’s strategic security is closely bound up with a congenial period of strategic opportunities. Over the past four decades, the strategic opportunities for China’s development and growth as a major country can boil down to such three contributing factors as technological revolution, power shift and strategic mistakes made by Western countries. However, in the new era, China needs to take the initiative to shape its strategic opportunities by grasping and employing the “strategic time gap”. In terms of overall strategy, China shall continue to strive for a peaceful international environment and demonstrate its commitment as a responsible major country when it moves to center stage in the international arena. At the same time, China shall endeavor to ensure that all the international games, especially the one between China and the US, are a positive-sum game so as to remove any misgivings about and mistrust of China’s rise by the established leading countries across the globe. What counts most is to gain a firm footing in China’s internal development, which is the substantive content of gaining an easy access to the golden period of strategic opportunities. The ultimate goal of grasping all the “strategic time gaps” is to realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.Only in this way will China meet the world’s expectations and peacefully rise.
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