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H a r a l d M ü l l e r a n d C a r s t e n R a u c h.[J].国际安全研究(英文版),2016,2(2):
Managing Power Transitions: Towards a 21stCentury Concert of Powers
英文关键词: power transition, power shift, concert of powers, multilateralism, world order, international order, international institutions
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H a r a l d M ü l l e r a n d C a r s t e n R a u c h  
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      Power shifts and especially power transitions in the international system are often associated with (military) confl ict. Power Transition Theory (PTT) does offer an analysis of this phenomenon but no remedy. We suggest easing the tensions related to ongoing worldwide power shifts by introducing a new informal multilateral security governance institution, based on the idea of a concert of powers. The historical European Concert of the 19th century prevented the outbreak of great power wars for more than a generation by providing a cooperation framework, based on shared norms and common procedures. In this article we explore the possibility of utilizing a modernized concert of powers as a framework for managing the coming power shifts. In order to do so, we introduce two new elements in Power Transition Theory: (1) the importance of the (dis) satisfaction of the declining hegemon with the anticipated future order, and (2) a broader multilateral framework of major powers that overcomes the Power Transition Theory’s traditional bilateral “duel” situation. On this basis, institutionalized power transition management becomes possible. We then work out the norms, strengths and weaknesses of the historical concert and update it with a few new features that would be necessary for it to be successful in the 21st century.
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