| 刘 悦.国际原油价差中的政治因素[J].国际安全研究,2013,(4):119-134 |
| 国际原油价差中的政治因素 |
| Political Factors in the International Oil Benchmark Spread |
| 投稿时间：2012-12-21 修订日期：2013-05-20 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 石油基准油 石油定价体系 西得州轻质原油 布伦特原油 原油价格倒挂 能源安全 |
| 英文关键词: oil benchmark oil pricing system energy security |
| 基金项目: |
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| 摘要点击次数: 1947 |
| 全文下载次数: 1451 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 国际石油价格一直是影响各国经济发展的重要因素，同时石油定价作为一种经济问题也会威胁各国能源安全，从而转化成为政治问题。作为世界上两种最重要的基准油,西得克萨斯州轻质原油（WTI）和布伦特原油（Brent）是国际石油定价中的核心要素，两者价格从历史上来看基本趋平，但从2010年至今,这两种原油价格倒挂价差峰值大，持续时间长，从本质上改变了WTI 和Brent相互参照联动的关系。从历史上WTI和Brent四次价差拉大案例的发展变化，可以看出政治因素能够影响并左右国际石油定价的经济问题。从中国角度来看，WTI和Brent倒挂对中国来说是一把双刃剑，一方面，美国由于获得低油价优势制造成本下调，中国制造占相对优势的行业相对处于劣势；另一方面，美国WTI对油价的低估，将导致其他石油生产国更倾向于同中国合作，并且WTI影响力的下降给中国参与国际石油定价系统提供了更大的空间。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| International oil pricing has always been a key factor in national economy and even in national energy security, and it can be transformed into a political issue. According to the world’s two most important oil benchmarks, WTI and Brent, the price difference from a historical point of view has been basically flattening. The phenomenon that the WTI and Brent crude oil prices spread peak lasted for a long time since 2010, shows a fundamental change in the relationship between WTI and Brent. Given the four spreads of WTI and Brent, based on historical and layer-by-layer analysis, the author argues that political factors can influence international oil pricing. From the Chinese perspective, the spread is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, the United States takes the advantage of low oil prices to lower manufacturing cost while China’s manufacturing industries are in relative disadvantage; On the other hand, the US underestimation of oil prices will make other oil-producing countries more willing to cooperate with China, and the falling influence of WTI provides a larger space for China in the international oil pricing system. |
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