文章摘要
张沱生.朝核问题与中国的政策[J].国际安全研究,2013,(5):52-61
朝核问题与中国的政策
North Korea Nuclear Issue and China’s Policy
投稿时间：2013-06-01  修订日期：2013-06-09
DOI：
中文关键词: 朝核危机  朝鲜半岛形势  中国的朝核问题政策  中国的朝鲜半岛政策
英文关键词: DPRK nuclear crisis, Korean Peninsula Situation, China’s Policy on North Korean nuclear issues, China’s Policy on Korean Peninsula
基金项目:
作者单位
张沱生 中国国际战略研究基金会,对外政策研究中心,北京 100101 
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中文摘要:
      2009年以来，朝鲜核政策的钟摆已明显指向拥核，朝核问题进入了关键时刻。在内外力量的合力下，朝核问题可能有三种前景：走上拥核不归路、引发军事冲突甚至战争、重新纳入对话解决的轨道。朝核危机的持续升级给半岛形势带来了严重的消极影响：在近期，半岛形势更为紧张，朝鲜与美日韩之间发生擦枪走火、军事冲突的可能性进一步上升。在中远期，如果朝鲜继续进行核导试验，甚至成为事实核国家，朝鲜与美日韩的军事对峙只会更加严重，半岛将更加远离和平稳定，朝鲜要想专心进行经济建设、改善民生也将更无可能。面对朝核与半岛的严峻形势，中国的对朝政策应与时俱进，有所调整：一是应积极主动地介入朝核问题的解决，二是要切实把握好半岛无核化与半岛和平稳定的关系，三是要坚决避免被他国的错误做法牵着鼻子走，四是要对可能发生的紧急事态和突发事件做好充分准备。只要坚持将本国利益、全球共同利益及朝鲜半岛人民的长远利益相结合，中国就一定能立于不败之地。
英文摘要:
      Since 2009, North Korea’s nuclear crisis has inclined towards embracing the development of nuclear weapon, and the Korean peninsular is now at a critical stage. Under both internal and external pressure, three possible scenarios may appear: irreversible possession of nuclear weapon, serious military conflict or even warfare, and resumption of dialogues towards resolution. The probability of accidental skirmish or even military conflict between North Korea and the US, Japan and ROK is higher than ever. In the long term, should North Korea continue its nuclear and missile tests or even become a de facto nuclear-weapon state, the military standoff between North Korea and US-Japan-Korea would be more intense; the Korean peninsular would be further away from peace and stability, and it would be more impossible for North Korea to focus on economic development and people’s livelihood. Therefore, China should adjust its policy on North Korea to be more proactive and intervene, properly handle the interaction between denuclearization of the Peninsula and its peace and stability, avoid being stringed by wrong actions of other countries concerned, and get prepared for potential emergencies and contingencies. As long as China’s national interests are well combined with common global interests and the long-term interest of North Korean people, China would be able to hold its position.
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