| 巴里.布赞,乔治.劳森.资本主义与新兴世界秩序[J].国际安全研究,2014,(1):78-100 |
| 资本主义与新兴世界秩序 |
| Capitalism and the Emergent World Order |
| 投稿时间：2013-11-04 修订日期：2013-12-10 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 去中心的全球化 资本主义类型 世界秩序 地缘政治 地缘经济 |
| 英文关键词: decentred globalism the modes of capitalist governance world Order geo-economic Competition geopolitical Conflict. |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 西方长达两个世纪之久的霸权正在走向终结，曾经推动西方崛起的现代化革命，如今已惠及所有国家。因此，19世纪发展起来并为中心——边缘世界秩序（core-periphery international order）奠定了基础的国家间实力差距（power gap）正在缩小。这一变化带来的结果是世界由有中心的全球体系（centred globalism）向去中心的全球体系（decentred globalism）转变。与此同时，当权力变得越来越分散的同时，主要国家之间意识形态上的分歧程度也正在缩小。事实上，当代世界中所有大国在某种形式上走的都是资本主义道路，在兴起中的世界新秩序中，意识形态上的差异比它在过去一个世纪里所呈现的要小得多。问题是：意识形态上的相对同质性是否将在四种主要的资本主义国家治理类型（自由民主主义体制、社会民主主义体制、竞争性威权主义体制和国家官僚主义体制）中引起地缘经济或者地缘政治上的竞争？民主主义与威权主义类型的资本主义之间政治上的分歧是否会超越它们之间的共同利益？还是它们之间存在的共同利益消弭了彼此的分歧？当代世界会出现像20世纪初那种不同类型而互为冲突的资本主义模式吗？或者会产生某种形式的“协和资本主义”？在未来一段时间里，我们很有可能仍然会处在一个政治上分化的多种类型的资本主义世界。由此，对于决策者来说所面临的重要任务就是要确保地缘经济竞争将不会导致地缘政治冲突的发生。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The two centuries old hegemony of the West is coming to an end. The “revolutions of modernity” that fuelled the rise of the West are now accessible to all states. As a result, the power gap that developed during the nineteenth century and which served as the foundation for a core-periphery international order is closing. The result is a shift from a world of “centred globalism” to one of “decentred globalism”. At the same time as power is becoming more diffuse, the degree of ideological difference among the leading powers is shrinking. Indeed, because all great powers in the contemporary world are in some form capitalist, the ideological bandwidth of the emerging international order is narrower than it has been for a century. The question is whether this relative ideological homogeneity will generate geoeconomic or geopolitical competition among the four main modes of capitalist governance: liberal democratic, social democratic, competitive authoritarian and state bureaucratic. This article assesses the strengths and weaknesses of these four modes of capitalist governance, and probes the main contours of inter-capitalist competition. Will the political differences between democratic and authoritarian capitalists override their shared interests or be mediated by them? Will there be conflicting capitalisms along the lines of the early part of the twentieth century? or will the contemporary world see the development of some kind of concert of capitalist powers? A world of politically differentiated capitalisms is likely to be with us for some time. As such, a central task facing policy makers is to ensure that geoeconomic competition takes place without generating geopolitical conflict. |
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