文章摘要
张文木.乌克兰事件的世界意义 及其对中国的警示[J].国际安全研究,2014,(4):1-26
乌克兰事件的世界意义 及其对中国的警示
The Ukraine Crisis: What does it Mean to the World and China
投稿时间:2014-04-20  修订日期:2014-05-13
DOI:
中文关键词: 乌克兰危机;俄罗斯;北约;凡尔赛体制;地缘政治
英文关键词: Ukraine crisis, Russia, NATO, Versailles System, geopolitics
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张文木  
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中文摘要:
      2014年乌克兰危机和克里米亚回归俄罗斯,对欧洲的意义是确定了欧洲人主导的“新凡尔赛体制”东扩的极限和边界。边界历来都是武力确定的。克里米亚的结局对俄罗斯的意义在于俄罗斯守住了生存底线——底线是俄罗斯未来复兴的基础和前提;对欧洲来说,意味着欧洲东扩已抵极限。从彼得大帝到斯大林,俄罗斯只是在波罗的海东岸地区与欧洲进行过边界拉锯,而在乌克兰,除了在第二次世界大战中的斯大林和冷战时期的戈尔巴乔夫有意收缩和放弃外,俄罗斯在乌克兰这个地方基本没有失过手。从对付拿破仑到希特勒的“胜利”经验中,西方人明白,在陆军可以发挥作用的近地,俄国人往往可以完胜。黑海离俄罗斯太近且陆地相连,陆军可以直接进驻;而西方海权国家在此则鞭长莫及。克里米亚对俄罗斯是生死之地,而对欧洲则是重要利益点,为了它,俄罗斯会用全部资源,而西方则不会。如果清楚俄罗斯在乌克兰归属的历史,也就知道2014年乌克兰事件意味着俄国反击欧洲东扩的历史才真正开始。乌克兰事件的影响是全球性的,其中的一些经验教训对中国而言,是有警示意义的。
英文摘要:
      The Ukraine crisis and the return of Crimea to Russia has reaffirmed the limit and boundary of the eastward expansion of the Europe-dominated “New Versailles system”. Instead of settling the border issue by military force as it has been always done, Russia managed, peacefully, to retain its border, the bottom line of its existence and the very foundation and prerequisite of its future revival, and consequently rendered it almost impossible for the EU to step up its eastward expansion in the foreseeable future. From the time of Peter the Great to that of Stalin, Russia had waged wars of attrition in the Baltic countries against Europe, and yet never lost a single one over Ukraine, except for the strategic contraction during the Stalin period in World War II and the Gorbachev period. In view of Russia’s “victory” over Napoleon and Hitler in history, the Westerns are fully aware that Russians would allow for no exception in the neighboring territories wherever the land forces are maneuverable. The Black Sea, which neighbors Russia and connects land, is easily accessible for ground forces and yet lies beyond the reach of the sea powers of the west. Crimea is vital to Russia and yet, registers only as “important” to the European interest. Thus, Russia would mobilize all its resources in case of Ukraine crisis, but the West would not. Given the history of Russia in Ukraine, the Ukraine crisis marks only the beginning of Russia’s strike back against the EU expansion. The impact of the crisis is yet to be felt globally and its warning lessons to be learned by China.
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