| 陈然,于朔.支持还是反对军事冲突？日本与邻国争端中民意的调查实验分析[J].国际安全研究,2014,(5):138-154 |
| 支持还是反对军事冲突？日本与邻国争端中民意的调查实验分析 |
| For or Against Military Conflict?—A Study Based on a Public Opinion Poll in Japan over Disputes with Neighboring Countries |
| 投稿时间：2014-03-06 修订日期：2014-06-30 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 日本政治 领土争端 军事冲突 调查实验 |
| 英文关键词: Japan, territorial dispute, military conflict, poll |
| 基金项目: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 近年来，东亚成为了世界政治中最不稳定的地区之一。日本与其邻国之间的领土问题是导致东亚区域不稳定的核心因素，愈演愈烈的中日钓鱼岛争端使两国处在军事冲突的边缘。当日本与邻国发生领土争端时，日本民众是否以及在什么情况下会支持政府发动军事冲突？为此，作者在日本进行了以民众为对象的调查实验。对调查实验结果所做的统计分析表明，如果目标国是美国的盟国、日本对目标国的经济依赖程度较高，那么日本民众倾向于反对政府向该国发动军事冲突，而目标国在二战期间是否曾受到日本的侵略这一因素并没有产生显著影响。同时，日本的年轻民众表现出了更强的和平倾向。这些结论为中国的对日外交提供了有益的政策启示。对于中日钓鱼岛问题等领土争端，在政治和安全领域，中国外交应进行必要的改革和创新，重新思考和构建中国的国际安全战略。在经贸领域，可以继续加强与日本的经贸合作以增加日本的退出成本，并灵活运用经济手段以增加日本国内的舆论压力。此外，有必要开展针对日本年轻一代的公共外交，由此促进中日关系的长远发展。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Over the past few years, East Asia has become one of the most politically unstable regions in the world. The territorial disputes between Japan and its neighboring countries stand as a core factor contributing to the regional instability. The deteriorating Diaoyu Islands dispute between China and Japan has put both countries on the edge of military conflict. Whether and under what circumstances will the Japanese public agree to the declaration of a military conflict when Japan is involved in territorial disputes with its neighboring countries? To find answers to these questions, a public opinion poll was conducted in Japan by the authors of this paper. According to the result of the poll, if the target country is one of the US’ allies, or Japan’s economy is highly dependent on the country, the Japanese public tends to oppose the declaration, whether it was once a victim of Japanese WWII invasion or not. Meanwhile, Japanese youths shows a stronger inclination to peace. In the light of the survey, when faced with territorial disputes like the one over Diaoyu Islands, China needs to reform its foreign policy, and readjust its international security strategies. In terms of economics and trade, it should reinforce economic and trade cooperation with Japan so as to increase Japan’s exit cost and domestic pressure from public opinions. In addition, it is crucial that public diplomacy be carried out targeting at Japan’s younger generations so as to promote the long-term development of Sino-Japanese relations. |
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