中国海军的崛起:从区域性海军力量到全球性海军力量？-The Rise of the Chinese Navy: From Regional Naval Power to Global Naval Power?

文章摘要

【美】陆伯彬著赵雪丹译.中国海军的崛起:从区域性海军力量到全球性海军力量？[J].国际安全研究,2016,(1):13-32

中国海军的崛起:从区域性海军力量到全球性海军力量？

The Rise of the Chinese Navy: From Regional Naval Power to Global Naval Power?

投稿时间：2015-06-08 修订日期：2015-10-11

DOI：

中文关键词: 中国海军崛起全球海洋秩序海洋强权东亚区域安全

英文关键词: rise of the Chinese navy, global maritime order, marine power, regional security of East Asia

基金项目:

作者	单位
【美】陆伯彬著赵雪丹译	美国波士顿学院政治学系

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中文摘要:

经过“后毛泽东时代”近四十年的经济发展与科技现代化，当前中国所拥有的资源已足以构建具有战略影响力的海军力量。与此同时，中国在其近域边疆的战略优势不断增强，这使得中国人民解放军可以将其军事预算重心从内陆军事力量转移至海军防御。因此，即使其经济增长放缓，中国仍将具有充足的财力、科技资源以及战略条件来建设一支“大海军”，从而对美国在东亚的海上安全构成越来越大的挑战，即使美国军事技术保持领先势头，这种挑战依然存在。据预测，十年内中国现代化海军规模将超越美国。这种变化将对未来全球海洋秩序产生巨大影响。虽然美国期望维持其全球海洋优势，但中国海军的崛起将会迫使美国将更多的海军力量集中于东亚海域，以制衡中国海军力量。同样，中国也可能会希望拥有全球性海洋军事优势。但随着美国海军对中国海军的日益关注，中国人民解放军将不得不集中力量发展其在东亚区域的海军力量，以维护其海洋安全。因此，由于海军大国维持地区安全的作用已经不复存在，中国海军的崛起将会导致东亚地区的不稳定，甚至还会导致欧亚大陆宽泛区域不稳定性的增强。

英文摘要:

After over 35 years of post Mao economic development and technological modernization, China now has the resources necessary to construct strategically influential naval capabilities. But equally important, China’s increasing strategic superiority along all of its interior frontiers enables the PLA to redirect its military budget priority away from interior ground force defense to maritime naval defense. Thus, even should China experience reduced economic growth, it will possess the financial and technological resources and the strategic environment necessary to construct a large navy that will pose a growing challenge to U.S. maritime security in East Asia, despite continued U.S. technological superiority. According to some projections, within ten years China will have a modern navy larger than that of the US, casting a significant impact on the global maritime order. Although the United States aspires to maintain its global maritime power, the rise of the Chinese navy will require the United States to concentrate an increasingly larger share of its navy in East Asian waters to balance China’s naval capabilities. Similarly, China may aspire to global naval status, but increased U.S. naval focus on the Chinese navy will require the PLA to concentrate its expanding naval forces in East Asia to maintain Chinese maritime security. Thus, the rise of the Chinese Navy may well result in greater instability across the breadth of the Eurasian littoral outside of East Asia, as there will no longer exist the stabilizing effect of a naval great power in regional security.

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