文章摘要
张春蔺,陆洲.输家政治:非洲选举与族群冲突研究[J].国际安全研究,2016,(1):117-145
输家政治:非洲选举与族群冲突研究
On Losers’ Politics: A Preliminary Study of the Presidential Elections and Ethnic Conflicts in Africa
投稿时间:2015-03-13  修订日期:2015-04-23
DOI:
中文关键词: 非洲选举;族群冲突;输家政治;外部介入
英文关键词: African election, ethnic conflict, losers’ politics, external intervention
基金项目:本文得到复旦大学陈树渠比较政治发展研究中心2013年度课题“失败者的政治:非洲选举与族群冲突研究”(项目编号:CCPDS FudanNDKT13054)资助,特此致谢。作者感谢《国际安全研究》匿名审稿专家的审稿意见,文责自负。2016年第1期
作者单位
张春蔺 1.上海国际问题研究院
2.上海国际问题研究院 上海 邮编:200233。 
陆洲 1.上海国际问题研究院
2.上海国际问题研究院 上海 邮编:200233。 
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中文摘要:
      与成熟的民主国家相比,非洲国家往往出现选举失利者不接受选举结果的情况即“输家政治”,西方学者多将这归因于非洲自身原因特别是族群矛盾或冲突。作者运用定性与定量研究相结合的方法,考察了1960-2012年间非洲大选中的输家政治现象,得出了不同结论。研究显示,非洲大选中的输家政治可分为三个时期,即1960-1970年的非殖民化运动成功初期,1971-1991年的政治现代化倒退时期,1992-2012年“第三波”民主化时期。输家政治在三个时期的表现和深层次动因并不相同,总体上族群矛盾不能被认为是非洲输家政治的根本原因。定量研究显示,族群因素仅在第二个时期有统计重要性,但并不暗示明确的因果关系。定量研究还得出一个西方研究者往往试图回避的结论,即在第一个和第三个时期,外部介入都是非洲输家政治的重要诱因,或者说西方在非洲推广的可能不是民主而是“民乱”,非洲需要确保对自身政治现代化进程的所有权。
英文摘要:
      Compared with established democratic states, African countries are often faced with the problem of so called “losers’ politics”, a phenomenon in which electoral losers are reluctant to accept election results. The study of this paper calls into question a common practice among Western academics which attributes the failures to African ethnic conflicts. Based on both quantitative and qualitative methodologies, this paper reviews losers’ politics in Africa between 1960 and 2012 and identifies three phases in the development of losers’ politics, namely, the early stage after decolonization from 1960 to 1970, the political modernization reversion period from 1971 to 1991, and the third wave democratization period from 1992 to 2012. It is found in the research that ethnic conflicts cannot be identified as a constant factor in losers’ politics. In fact, they become statistically meaningful only in the second phase, indicating that they may not be the true reason for the breakdown of the electoral process. Meanwhile, another important conclusion the quantitative research has reached is that external intervention is one of the key causal factors in losers’ politics during both the first and the third phases, a fact that the West tries hard to conceal. In other words, what the West is spreading in Africa is probably “democrazy” rather than democracy, which underlines the importance of African countries’ self reliance in their own political modernization.
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