| 达巍,张昭曦.中美关系新阶段中的战略“失语”与战略稳定探索[J].国际安全研究,2016,(5):39-59 |
| 中美关系新阶段中的战略“失语”与战略稳定探索 |
| US Relations:Loss of Consensus and the Search for Strategic Stability |
| 投稿时间：2016-07-04 修订日期：2016-07-26 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 中美关系 新型大国关系 战略稳定 |
| 英文关键词: China-US relationship a new type of major power relationship strategic stability |
| 基金项目: |
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| 摘要点击次数: 2150 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 过去几年,中美关系从国际体系内的霸权国家与国际体系外的相对较弱国家之间的关系,演变为国际体系内的守成强国与崛起强国之间的关系。这种变化导致中美关系告别了过去四十余年的“接触—融入”战略框架。中美关系进入新阶段后,两国需要一个双方都可接受的、新的战略稳定框架,以确保中美关系的长期稳定。然而,由于种种原因,两国迄今尚未能形成可以为两国关系实践提供战略指导的新框架与新论述。美国方面出现了以亚太政策代替中国政策等问题；中国方面提出的“新型大国关系”概念也未能获得美方很好地理解与接受。因此,过去几年中美关系进入一个缺乏宏观战略共识指引的新时期。这是过去几年中美关系中的竞争面、消极面日益凸显的重要原因。让人鼓舞的是,中美两国领导人在危机管控、全球议题合作等领域,正在以逐案处理的方式,为两国摸索新的利益边界。这种探索或许能够导致中美两国形成新的稳定框架,其产生的“正能量”与中美结构性矛盾自然产生的“负能量”之间的“竞赛”将决定未来一段时间内中美关系的移动方向。不过,两国领导人的这种尝试未来也将面临美国政治周期变化等不确定因素的影响。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In the past few years, the Sino-US relationship has evolved from a relationship between a hegemonic power in the international system and a relatively weak power outside that system, to a relationship between an established power and a rising power which are both part of the international system. The evolution has led to an end of the strategic consensus of “engagement-integration” that has lasted for about forty years between the two countries. With the Sino-US relationship moving into a new phase, both countries fail to put forward a new framework and statement that provide strategic guidance for practice. Instead of a clearly elaborated China policy, the Obama administration merely implemented the “rebalance” strategy to the whole region, while China proposed the concept of a “new type of major power relationship” which is not well understood or accepted by the US side. Thus, the Sino-US relationship in the past few years has moved into a “strategic tunnel” which deprives the two countries of any strategic guidance, hence a more outstanding competitive and negative side of the bilateral relationship. The good news is, the two presidents are exploring new boundaries of national interests in a “case by case” way, e.g. in crisis management and CBMs in military area, and climate change cooperation at global level. The bad news is, the sustainability of such attempts by leaders is questionable, particularly so as a result of the uncertainties imposed by political cycles in the American politics. Whether the positive side of their relations will override their negative side, which are naturally associated with the structural conflicts between two countries, will decide the direction of Sino-US relationship. |
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