| 赵洋,戴长征.国际安全态势分析(2010-2015)*[J].国际安全研究,2016,(6):107-123 |
| 国际安全态势分析(2010-2015)* |
| An Analysis of International Security Situation (2010 〖KG*9〗2015) |
| 投稿时间：2016-08-12 修订日期：2016-09-20 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 国家安全 安全态势 安全指数 恐怖主义 难民危机 朝核问题 |
| 英文关键词: International Security, Security Situation, International Terrorism, Refugees Problem, Korean Nuclear Issue |
| 基金项目: |
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| 摘要点击次数: 1778 |
| 全文下载次数: 1561 |
| 中文摘要: |
| “国际安全态势感知指数”研究结合相关指标,对全球近二百个国家近二十年来的安全态势进行了定量分析,是大数据同国际关系研究相结合的一次有意义的尝试,也为国际安全研究开辟了一条崭新的道路。该项研究将一些因素(如武装部队人数、军费支出和去往一个国家的旅游人数等)视为安全的先行指标,这些指标的变化反映一个国家的安全态势的变化。因此,通过衡量这些指标就可以观察出不同国家的安全态势。通过这种分析,该项研究对各个国家在不同时间段(二十年、十年、五年)的安全状况进行了排名,从而可以区分出世界上最安全以及最不安全的国家。结合该项研究的部分成果对2010-2015年的国际安全态势进行解读,可从主要大国、地区和区域三个层次分析不同安全态势产生的原因。不过,“国际安全态势感知指数”也存在不足:一是该感知指数的研究结果所呈现的是一种相关性关系而不是因果性关系,该研究只能表明相关指标和国家的安全态势感知之间存在着一定的关联性,但并不能证明这些指标的变化导致了国家的安全态势感知的变化；二是该项研究所显示的部分结果同学术界传统的认知并不相符。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Index of International Security Situation Awareness (IISSA) is a quantitative analysis of the security situation of about 200 countries in the world in the past 20 years. In the analysis, some indexes (such as the quantity of one country’s armed forces, the military expenditure and the number of tourists visiting a country) are seen as the antecedent marks that indicate the impending change of a country’s security situation. Through such an analysis, security situations of different countries in different periods are ranked, and countries in the best and worst security situations are picked out. By utilizing the data provided by IISSA, this paper analyzes the international security situation from the year of 2010 to 2015, and explains the reasons for different security situations at three levels (major powers, regional and sub-regional). IISSA has its own limitations. On the one hand, the results only indicate the relevance rather than causal relations. The study can only establish some relationships between relevant indicators and the security situation awareness. It is incapable of verifying that the changes in those indicators have caused the changes in the national security situation awareness. On the other hand, some of the results in the study do not accommodate to the conventional knowledge in the academia. After the analysis, this paper forecasts possible security situations in different areas in the future. |
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