| 宋伟.美澳双边安全关系的新发展、战略限度与中长期态势*[J].国际安全研究,2017,(3):102-117 |
| 美澳双边安全关系的新发展、战略限度与中长期态势* |
| A New US Australian Bilateral Security Relationship: Its Development, Strategic Limitations and Mid to Long Term Tendency |
| 投稿时间：2016-12-01 修订日期：2017-01-19 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 美澳安全合作 美澳同盟 中澳关系 战略限度 中长期态势 |
| 英文关键词: US-Australian security cooperation, new development, strategic limitation, medium-and-long term tendency |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 奥巴马上任以来,美国和澳大利亚双边安全关系出现了新进展:两国安全合作的战略地位提升,技术层面的合作不断加深,安全政策的协调更加密切,澳大利亚在地区安全秩序上进一步偏向美国。但这种新发展也有一定的战略限度,即避免过度激怒中国。由于密切的中澳经济关系、中澳两国间不存在直接的领土冲突以及相对中立更有利于澳大利亚的地区影响力,澳美安全合作短期内存在这样的战略限度。此外,美国国内政治和外交政策走向的不确定性以及澳大利亚和其他亚太国家关系的发展变化,也是影响澳美安全合作战略限度的因素。两国中长期的安全关系总的来说会朝着更加密切、重要和一体化的方向发展,但这一态势最终取决于地区力量结构以及中美澳三边关系的变化,原因在于,美澳两国之间的安全合作没有太大的现实障碍,并有相当的动力继续加强安全上的合作。同时,随着澳大利亚与《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》成员的经贸依赖关系的加深,对中国经济依赖度的降低可能成为一个影响澳大利亚外交政策选择的长期重要因素。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The bilateral security relationship between US and Australia has made new progress since Obama took office:the strategic status of their security cooperation has been elevated; the cooperation on the technical level has been deepened; and the coordination of security policy has been reinforced while Australia is becoming more tilted towards the US in the regional security order. But this new development also has its own limitations, that is, in a large sense to avoid exasperating China. Due to the close China-Australian economic relationship, no direct territorial conflicts and a relative neutral stance that favors Australia’s regional influence, in the short term there is still strategic limit to US-Australian security cooperation. In addition, the uncertainty of US domestic and foreign policies and changes in Australia’s relationships with other Asia-Pacific countries can also exert negative influence on US-Australian security cooperation. But in the mid-to long-term, decided by the regional power structure and the China-US-Australian triangular relationship, the US and Australia will have a closer and more integrated security relationship that holds more significance for the two countries. And there are no severe obstacles for the US and Australia to strengthen their security cooperation. Meanwhile, with the rising economic exchanges with other trade partners, the decrease of economic dependence on China might be an importanct factor influencing the Australia’s foreign policy choice in the long run. |
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