文章摘要
李开盛.中美东亚冲突管控:第三方的角色与选择[J].国际安全研究,2017,(4):3-18
中美东亚冲突管控:第三方的角色与选择
Roles and Options of Third Parties in China U.S. Conflict Management in East Asia
投稿时间:2017-01-21  修订日期:2017-03-13
DOI:
中文关键词: 中美冲突;冲突管控;东亚国家;第三方角色与选择
英文关键词: China-US conflicts, East Asian countries, third parties
基金项目:
作者单位
李开盛 上海社会科学院国际问题研究所,上海 ,200020 
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中文摘要:
      第三方在中美东亚博弈中发挥着特殊的作用,其政策选择对于管控中美冲突具有重要的意义。根据主要国际关系理论的逻辑推演,第三方通过在一定条件下的选边站、推动制度构建和协调、促进双方间良性认知,能够在管控中美冲突方面发挥一定的作用。在国际社会仍处于无政府状态以及国家间实力对比总是处于变化之中的背景下,基于实力考虑的“选边站”政策容易导致新的安全问题,第三方在中美间扮演制度推动者和观念沟通者的角色更加值得倡导,东盟系列机制以及新加坡的实践提供了这方面的经验与教训。当前的问题是,日、韩等国对与美同盟体系的坚持,东盟系列机制效能的降低以及新加坡一度将重心转移到实力平衡者而非观念沟通者的角色,都反映出许多东亚第三方的选择正在与管控中美冲突的目标背道而驰。为了地区的和平与自己的长远利益,东亚国家需要采取更加明智和有远见的政策。
英文摘要:
      The role of third parties is a key variable in the China-US gaming and the policy options of East Asian countries contribute significantly to the management of China-US conflicts. Based on the fundamental ideas of major schools of international relations theories, third parties are deemed to have great potential for the management of conflicts between China and the US by taking sides, constructing constitutional mechanisms and enhancing mutual understanding between the two major powers. Given that taking sides may cause new security challenges, third parties are expected to assume a more positive role as a mechanism facilitator and conceptual communicator between China and the US. Unfortunately, some East Asian countries seem to run in the opposite direction:Japan and South Korea firmly maintain their alliances with the US, the ASEAN countries are witnessing a decrease in mechanism efficiency and Singapore is shifting its focus from promoting communication to maintaining balance of power. For the sake of China-US peaceful coexistence, the regional peace and their own long-term interests, East Asian countries are expected to adopt wiser and farsighted polices while managing China-US conflicts.
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