| 郭晓兵.防扩散还将是中美合作亮点吗？——中美防扩散合作模式、动因及前景探析[J].国际安全研究,2017,(5):111-127 |
| 防扩散还将是中美合作亮点吗？——中美防扩散合作模式、动因及前景探析 |
| Will Non proliferationContinue to be the highlight in Sino US Cooperation?On the Pattern, Motivation and Prospects of Sino US Non proliferation Cooperation |
| 投稿时间：2017-02-23 修订日期：2017-06-27 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 防扩散 核安全 出口管制 中美合作模式 |
| 英文关键词: non-proliferation, nuclear security, export control, Sino-US cooperation model |
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| 摘要点击次数: 1597 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 九一一事件以来,防扩散成为中美合作亮点。两国在多层面形成较稳定的合作模式:在国际防扩散机制建设方面,美中之间主要是倡议者和积极参与者、建设者的关系；在应对地区核热点方面,中美分别扮演了“好警察”和“坏警察”的角色；在双边合作方面,中美互动以培训与协作为主。防扩散之所以能够成为中美合作亮点,是空前严峻的核扩散形势及两国防扩散战略调整等主客观因素共同作用的结果。防扩散合作加深了中美了解与互信,稳定了热点地区形势,保障了中美两国的安全与发展利益,改善了中美经贸交流的外部环境。但随着近年国际形势发生深刻变化,中美防扩散合作面临抓手减少、互补协作难度增大、地缘干扰因素增加等挑战。因此,对未来的中美防扩散合作不能盲目乐观。当然,形势变化也孕育着新的希望。中国的快速发展将扩大中美防扩散合作的共同利益基础,并为两国合作提供更多智慧和资源。中美应在更加平等的基础上,适时调整防扩散合作重点,探索新的合作模式,使之成为两国携手进行全球治理和维护地区秩序的样板。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Since September 11, non-proliferation has become a highlight in Sino-US cooperation. The two countries have formed relatively stable patterns of cooperation at different levels:as far as the international non-proliferation mechanism is concerned, the United States and China have assumed the roles of advocate and active participant respectively; in response to regional hotspots, China and the United States have played the roles of “good policeman” and “bad policeman” separately; in terms of bilateral cooperation, Sino-US interactions have focused on training and collaboration. The successful Sino-US cooperation pattern should be attributed to both objective factors such as unprecedented proliferation risks and subjective factors such as the strategic choices of China and the US. The non-proliferation cooperation has deepened the mutual understanding and trust between the two countries, stabilized the hot spot situation, guaranteed the security and development interests of China and the United States, and created better conditions for Sino-US economic and trade exchanges. However, in recent years, changes in the international situation have brought new challenges to the cooperation between China and the United States. The space and scope for Sino-US non-proliferation cooperation has been reduced. China has found it more and more difficult to play the role of an “honest middle man”. The US non-proliferation policy has been increasingly affected by geopolitical factors. Thus we should not be blindly optimistic about the future of Sino-US non-proliferation cooperation. However, changes in the current international climate can also generate new hopes. China’s rapid development will expand the common interests for Sino-US non-proliferation cooperation and provide more resources and wisdom for the cooperation between the two countries. China and the United States should update the agenda of non-proliferation cooperation in due course, explore new patterns of cooperation and create a model to work together hand in hand for regional stability and global governance. |
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