文章摘要
赵洋.国际安全态势分析与预测(2016-2017年)[J].国际安全研究,2017,(6):129-150
国际安全态势分析与预测(2016-2017年)
Analysis and Prediction of International Security Situation (2016 2017)
投稿时间:2017-08-01  修订日期:2017-08-25
DOI:
中文关键词: 国际安全;安全态势;感知指数;大数据;恐怖主义;地区冲突
英文关键词: international security, security situation, awareness index, big data, terrorism, regional conflict
基金项目:
作者单位
赵洋 对外经济贸易大学国际关系学院,北京 ,100029 
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中文摘要:
      2017年最新出版的《国际安全态势感知指数》对世界上169个国家的安全态势进行了排名,从而为理解当今的全球安全问题提供了一个崭新的视角。同2016年版的《国际安全态势感知指数》相比,新版的感知指数在变量选取上有了较大的突破,其主要特点是对变量的数量进行了精简,将变量数量从先前的五十余个缩减到十余个,并且针对不同国家的不同特点选择具有针对性的变量,以求更加准确地反映不同国家对于安全的客观需求。同时,2017年的研究报告实现了变量的动态调整,即坚持在开放的数据源当中随机挖掘数据,以保证随机变量可以不断涌入,从而实现可以剔除冗余变量以及寻找最紧密的关联关系。通过定量分析,可以发现2016年各个国家的安全态势相比于2015年又发生了一些变化。全球整体安全形势渐趋恶化,欧洲正在滑入“恐怖深渊”;发达国家普遍进入“多事之秋”,西亚北非深陷全球冲突“风暴中心”;全球恐怖主义由传统活动区域向周边国家扩散,“独狼式”攻击成为恐怖攻击新潮流。在此背景下,美国、俄罗斯等国家的排名变化较为明显,西欧地区的安全态势呈现出恶化的趋势。
英文摘要:
      The newly publishedIndex of International Security Situation Awareness (IISSA) ranks 169 countries’ security situations in the world, which offers us a novel way for understanding global security issues. Compared with IISSA 2016, the IISSA 2017 has made an important breakthrough in selecting variables. The latest IISSA has reduced the number of variables from more than 50 to about 10 and selected different variables for each specific country, which has been proved as conductive to reflecting different countries’ objective security needs. In addition, IISSA 2017 has utilized dynamic adjustment as a way to select variables randomly and explore useful data in an open data set. This is an innovation which helps not only achieve the continuous entry of data into analysis while excluding the superfluous ones but also discover the closest correlation among different data. By virtue of quantitative analysis, some new changes in security situations could be perceived. The overall trend shows an increasingly deteriorated global security situation with more threats in store for some European, Western Asian and North African countries. Moreover, global terrorism is spreading from its traditional core to peripheral areas, and “lone wolf” attacks have become a new trend. These changes have been reflected in the ranking as a sign of the worsening security situation in some countries.
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