文章摘要
周亦奇.“革命者的失望”与“革命联盟”内部分裂[J].国际安全研究,2018,(4):127-156
“革命者的失望”与“革命联盟”内部分裂
The “Disappointment of Revolution Participants” and the Internal Fragmentation of “Revolution Coalition”: A Quantitative Analysis of “Arab Spring” Participants in Egypt and Tunisia
  修订日期:2018-05-24
DOI:10.14093/j.cnki.cn10-1132/d.2018.04.005
中文关键词: 阿拉伯之春;后革命政治发展;革命联盟;定量分析
英文关键词: Arab Spring, “Post-revolution” political development, quantitative analysis
基金项目:
作者单位
周亦奇 Assistant Research Fellow, Institutes for Comparative Politics and Public Policy and Center for West Asia and African Studies, Shanghai Institutes for International Studies Shanghai, 200233. 
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中文摘要:
      2011年以来,席卷西亚北非的“阿拉伯之春”运动对埃及和突尼斯产生了重大的政治和社会影响。在该运动产生的各种研究议题中,参与过此次运动的民众对于该运动的评估是其中的一个重要问题。作者以“革命者的失望”为视角对此议题进行了探讨,认为“革命者的失望”这一变量反映了“革命联盟”在胜利后的分裂进程,是转型阶段中各种政治力量权力斗争、经济冲突与理念冲突的体现。以上三种类型的冲突可操作化为民主支持度、经济地位和政治伊斯兰等三个变量,并根据“阿拉伯民主晴雨表”的数据,对以上变量与“革命者的失望”的关系进行分析。通过分析发现在突尼斯和埃及两国都出现了先前运动参与者对此运动发展的失望问题,不过,具体影响失望的变量在两国有所不同。在民主支持度上,虽然埃及和突尼斯民主支持度对参与者的失望都有着显著的影响,但是其方向完全相反。在经济地位上,突尼斯呈现出了显著的影响,但是埃及却没有出现显著的影响。在政治伊斯兰问题上,作者创新性地将政治伊斯兰分成政策伊斯兰、政党伊斯兰和政权伊斯兰等三个维度,并且发现三个维度的政治伊斯兰在埃及和突尼斯两国呈现的影响并不相同,反映了政治伊斯兰与“革命者失望”之间的微妙复杂联系。
英文摘要:
      Since 2011, the Arab Spring movements that swept across West Asia and North Africa have exerted tremendous political and social impact on Egypt and Tunisia. Among all those relevant research agendas, the participants’ assessment of the movements has become one of the highlights. This paper examines and explores this issue from the perspective of “disappointment of revolution participants”. It argues that the “disappointment of revolution participants” is a variable that reflects the process of fragmentation within the “revolution coalition” after a remarkable political victory was achieved. The “disappointment of revolution participants” also embodies political rivalries, economic confrontations, and ideological conflicts among different political factions at the transformation stage of development. This paper firstly defines the three above-mentioned conflicts as three variables: support for democracy, economic status, political Islam and then proceeds to analyze their relations with the “disappointment of revolution participants” based on the “Arab Barometers”. The findings of this paper are that in Tunisia and Egypt, a certain proportion of participants are not happy with the revolutionary progress, though the two countries differ in the specific variables that affect the participants’ disappointment. As for the variable of support for democracy, despite its significant impact on the “disappointment of revolution participants” in both Tunisia and Egypt, the effects in the two countries are diametrically opposed. Concerning the variable of economic status, it has exerted significant influence on Tunisia but little impact on Egypt. As regards the variable of political Islam, this paper classifies political Islam into three dimensions: policy, party and power. These three dimensions of political Islam display different impacts in Tunisia and Egypt, which reveals the subtle and complicated relationship between political Islam and the “disappointment of revolution participants”.
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