| 李岩.特朗普安全战略的调整与限度[J].国际安全研究,2018,(5):54-72 |
| 特朗普安全战略的调整与限度 |
| On the Adjustment and Constraints of Trump’s Security Strategy |
| 投稿时间：2018-05-18 修订日期：2018-06-19 |
| DOI：10.14093/j.cnki.cn10-1132/d.2018.05.000004 |
| 中文关键词: 特朗普 安全战略 战略调整与限度 中美安全关系 |
| 英文关键词: Trump, security strategy, China-US security relations |
| 基金项目: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 随着特朗普政府陆续出台一系列战略文件，相关安全政策付诸实施，其安全战略的基本态势逐渐清晰。特朗普的安全观和政策举措，共同构成执政初期安全战略的主体。特朗普的安全观建立在其自身对世界“霍布斯主义”认知的基础上，同时融合了共和党现实主义安全观的基本主张，反映了军工企业及军人群体等背后主要利益集团的核心诉求。特朗普的安全政策仍处于成型中，在军事战略、新空间战略和地区安全战略三个层面举措较多，相关布局较为系统，集中折射了其安全理念。在军事安全层面，在重塑美军优势的核心目标下，扩张性的态势表现明显；在新空间战略层面，进攻性、军事化的特征尤为突出；在地区安全战略层面虽然在手段上有所变化，但总体延续了防御性战略。特朗普的安全战略调整未来仍将面临诸多限度，包括财政制约、同时应对两个大国难以兼顾、建制派的牵制等。特朗普的安全战略将加剧中美在安全领域的对抗态势，两国在军事战略、新空间战略稳定以及南海问题上的对冲和深层矛盾或进一步发酵。安全关系的上述变化将给中美“竞争”增添新变数。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| As the Trump administration has successively issued a series of strategic documents and implemented relevant security policies, the major trend of its security strategy has become distinct. Trump’s security perception and his policy measures have constituted the main body of the security strategy at the early stage of the administration. Trump’s security perception is based on his Hobbesian understanding of the world and corresponds with the realist security perception of the Republican Party. It reflects the core appeals of major interest groups behind the defense industry and military groups. Trump’s security policies are still at a formative stage, focusing on military strategy, new space strategy and regional security strategy. The systematic initiatives in these three fields have highlighted Trump’s security perception. With the core objective of reshaping the supremacy of the US armed forces, the United States is taking a more aggressive and expansionist stance. The US new space strategy is also characterized by aggressiveness and militarization. In terms of regional security strategy, the United States has basically continued its defensive posture, although it has made a few changes to its strategic enablers. Trump’s security strategy adjustment still suffers from such constraints as military spending limits, insufficient capacity to deal with two great powers at the same time and the containment from the Republican establishment. Trump’s security strategy would ultimately aggravate the China-US confrontation in the field of security. The hedging and deep-seated contradictions may undergo further fermentation in regard to the two countries’ military strategy, new space strategy and the South China Sea issue. The above-mentioned changes in the China-US security relations will bring new variables to the “competition” between the two countries. |
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