| 邹治波,刘玮.构建中美核战略稳定性框架：非对称性战略平衡的视角[J].国际安全研究,2019,37(1):40-59 |
| 构建中美核战略稳定性框架：非对称性战略平衡的视角 |
| Constructing the Sino-US Nuclear Strategic Stability Framework: An Asymmetric Strategic Balance Approach |
| 修订日期：2018-11-25 |
| DOI：10.14093/j.cnki.cn10-1132/d.2019.01.00X002 |
| 中文关键词: 中美关系 权力转移 战略稳定 核战略稳定性 |
| 英文关键词: Sino-US relations, power transition, strategic stability, nuclear strategic stability |
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| 摘要点击次数: 2825 |
| 全文下载次数: 1832 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 权力转移导致中美战略竞争加剧，维护中美战略稳定成为攸关中美关系发展以及世界和平与稳定的重大问题。构建中美核战略稳定性框架是实现中美战略稳定的基石。传统战略稳定理论主要基于美苏两大对称性阵营的敌对关系，对于不对称性和动态权力转移背景下的中美核战略稳定性的理论解释力和实践指导性不足。基于非对称战略平衡视角，中美核战略稳定性框架应以保证中国第二次核打击能力为基础。在机制层面，中美要加强交流、协商和谈判以建立相关机制，逐渐形成中美核战略关系的共识，推动达成稳定中美核战略关系的协议、条约等法律性承诺，从而构建稳定中美核战略关系的政治框架。在结构层面，中国无需谋求与美国对等的核力量。统筹考虑军事效用和政治效果，构筑包括核实力、核威慑决心和核威慑信息传递的完备核威慑战略，确保处于弱势的中国拥有对美国进行核反击造成美不可承受损失的能力，是实现中美核战略稳定的关键。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Given that the power transition taking place between China and the US has led to intensified strategic competition between the two countries, maintaining Sino-US strategic stability has become a major concern in the development of Sino-US relations and the course of world peace and stability. Constructing a Sino-US nuclear strategic stability framework is the cornerstone for achieving Sino-US strategic stability. The traditional strategic stability theory, which is mainly based on the hostile relationship between the two major symmetric camps led by the United States and the Soviet Union respectively, can hardly offer theoretical explanation and practical guidance for the stability of Sino-US nuclear strategy under the background of asymmetry and dynamic power shift. Therefore, from the perspective of asymmetric strategic balance, ensuring China’s second-strike capability should be at the core of the Sino-US nuclear strategic stability framework. At the institutional level, both sides should establish relevant mechanisms by strengthening communication, consultation and negotiation, build consensus and fulfill legal commitments via agreements and treaties in order to construct a political framework that stabilizes Sino-US nuclear strategic dynamics. At the structural level, it is not necessary for China to seek nuclear forces equivalent to those of the United States. The key to Sino-US nuclear strategic stability lies in the overall consideration of military utility and political effects, the formulation of an integrated nuclear deterrence strategy, which includes enhancing the combat capability of China’s nuclear forces, strengthening the determination to carry out deterrence operations and facilitating information transmission regarding nuclear deterrence so that China can be well equipped with the capacity to launch a nuclear counterattack against and cause unbearable losses to the United States. |
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