文章摘要
许超,刘胜湘.特朗普政府反恐预警机制机制改革论析[J].国际安全研究,2019,(2):91-113
特朗普政府反恐预警机制机制改革论析
An Analysis of the Reform on Counter-terrorism Early-Warning Mechanism under the Trump Administration
投稿时间:2018-06-24  修订日期:2018-12-15
DOI:10.14093/j.cnki.cn10-1132/d.2019.02.000005
中文关键词: 特朗普政府;反恐预警机制;边界管控机制;情报合作与共享机制
英文关键词: the Trump administration, counter-terrorism early-warning mechanism, border control mechanism, intelligence cooperation and sharing mechanism
基金项目:
作者单位
许超 上海外国语大学中东研究所 上海 200083 
刘胜湘 上海外国语大学中东研究所 上海 200083 
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中文摘要:
      特朗普上台伊始,以“伊斯兰国”为代表的外部恐怖力量的恶性发展和本土“独狼”式恐怖袭击的频发严重威胁着美国安全,民众不安全感因此持续上升,加之美国反恐系统的缺陷,要求改革美国反恐预警机制的呼声日增。特朗普政府改革反恐预警机制的举措主要包括加强反恐情报搜集和分析、加强与盟友的情报合作与共享机制、加强边界与海关的预防管控、强化反恐预防执法机制、修正国家威胁警报系统公告发布机制等五个方面。纵观特朗普政府执政近两年的反恐预警机制改革实践,其实际效果并不明显。特朗普与情报界的紧张关系及特朗普政府的情报失误、强化移民治理机制、预防恐怖分子政策、对穆斯林敌对性的移民政策、边界预防管控的任性政策及反恐战略的不确定性等,都将影响美国正常反恐预警机制的形成,也会影响美国反恐预警机制的效果与改革方向。美国要预防恐怖主义需要在国内解决社会分裂问题,在国外放弃霸凌政策以缓解反美力量的对美的敌对情绪,美国面临的恐怖威胁才有可能降低。
英文摘要:
      Since Donald Trump took office as President of the United States, this country has seen further development of terrorist forces represented by the “Islamic State” and frequent occurrence of the local “lone wolf” terrorist attacks. In addition, the intensified public feelings of insecurity, coupled with the defects in the US counter-terrorism system, have called for reforms on the counter-terrorism early-warning mechanism of the United States. The main reform measures taken by the Trump administration include five aspects: strengthening counter-terrorism intelligence gathering and analysis, improving the intelligence-sharing and cooperation mechanism with its allies, enhancing its capacity to secure and control the borders, bolstering the mechanism for terrorism prevention and law enforcement and revising the announcement and issuance mechanism of Homeland Security Advisory System. However, the reforms still suffer a loss of focus and effectiveness despite strenuous efforts made by the Trump administration over the past two years. Tensions between President Trump and the intelligence community, together with the intelligence blunders made by the Trump administration, overreactive policies of strengthening immigration governance mechanism to prevent terrorists, hostile immigration policies against the Muslims, capricious policies of the border control mechanism as well as the inconsistent counter-terrorism strategies will affect not only the formation of a normal counter-terrorism early-warning mechanism but also the effectiveness and reform direction of such mechanism. To prevent terrorism, the United States needs to address social disintegration at home and abandon its bullying policies abroad to alleviate the hostility of anti-American forces. Only by doing so will terrorist threats facing the United States be likely to be reduced.
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