文章摘要
武兵科,张家栋.美国国家反恐战略的分析框架与历史演进[J].国际安全研究,2019,(3):96-127
美国国家反恐战略的分析框架与历史演进
The Analytical Framework and Evolution of the US National Counter- Terrorism Strategy
投稿时间:2019-01-17  修订日期:2019-02-17
DOI:10.14093/ cnki.cn10-1132/d.2019.03.005
中文关键词: 恐怖主义;美国反恐战略;反恐政策;特朗普政府;美国优先
英文关键词: terrorism, US counter-terrorism strategy, counter-terrorism policy, the Trump administration, America First
基金项目:
作者单位
武兵科 复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院 上海 200433 
张家栋 复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院 上海 200433 
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中文摘要:
      美国全球反恐行动已持续近十八年,理解当下特朗普政府的反恐战略和未来走向离不开对美国反恐战略历史演进的梳理,而对三届政府反恐战略的比较则需基于统一的分析框架。美国国家反恐战略包括四个基本组成部分:对恐怖主义的威胁认知、指导反恐的基本原则、预设的战略目标和实施的政策手段。对比分析小布什政府、奥巴马政府与特朗普政府的反恐战略,特朗普政府延续了上一任政府持续收缩的全球反恐态势,具体表现为对恐怖主义的威胁认知更趋符合客观现实,“美国优先”的指导原则凸显了利己和激进的态度,预设的战略目标则相对具体和务实。在政策手段上,特朗普政府缩减反恐武力规模、减少外交关注和发展投入,但通过加大军事打击力度以向外界传达其反恐的强硬态度。以“美国优先”为原则的反恐收缩战略进一步表现出美国对全球反恐行动感到疲乏且失去信心,并以此为由试图摆脱原有约束美国对外行为的一系列因素。特朗普政府的反恐战略并不能使美国彻底摆脱全球反恐的尴尬境地,并将对全球反恐形势和国家间关系产生重要影响。
英文摘要:
      The US global anti-terrorism operation has lasted for nearly 18 years. Gaining a better understanding of the Trump administration’s anti-terrorism strategy and its prospect cannot be separated from clarifying the historical evolution of the US anti-terrorism strategy. And comparing the US counter-terrorism strategies adopted by three administrations in succession calls for a unified analytical framework. This paper believes that the US national counter-terrorism strategy consists of four basic components, namely terrorism threat awareness, fundamental counter-terrorism principles, strategic objectives and policy instruments for implementation. This paper has analyzed and compared the anti-terrorism strategies under the Bush administration, the Obama administration and the Trump administration. By contrast, the Trump administration’s terrorism threat perception with specific and pragmatic strategic goals tends to be more realistic than previous ones. The “America First” principle highlights a radical, self-interest-centered policy orientation. In terms of policy instruments, the Trump administration has downsized its anti-terrorism forces, reduced its diplomatic concerns and decreased development investment in relevant regions. At the same time, the Trump administration chose to send a strong message to the outside world about its uncompromising anti-terrorism stance through intensified military strikes. However, the retrenched counter- terrorism strategy under the principle of “America First” further demonstrates that the United States has become weary of and lost confidence in its global counter- terrorism operations. The Trump administration’s counter-terrorism strategy will not extricate the United States from the global counter-terrorism campaign. It will exert an important impact on the global anti-terrorism situation and inter-state relations.
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