文章摘要
葛汉文.“熊通困境”:国际体系中的身份政治与安全两难[J].国际安全研究,2020,(6):86-104
“熊通困境”:国际体系中的身份政治与安全两难
“Xiong Tong Predicament”: Identity Politics and Security Dilemma in International System
  
DOI:10.14093/jcnki.cn10-1132/d.2020.06.004
中文关键词: 熊通困境;霸权国;崛起国;异质身份;国际政治身份;安全困境
英文关键词: Xiong Tong Predicament, hegemony, rising power, identity, strategy, China
基金项目:
作者单位
葛汉文 国防科技大学国际关系学院 南京 210039 
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中文摘要:
      “熊通困境”是指国际体系中的崛起国家,因“异质身份”而面临现行国际体系强烈敌意、因实力相对增长而受到霸权国家及其附庸集团权势压制的双重难题。西周乃至春秋时期楚国的历史经验表明,由于特定国家与霸权国家及其附庸集团大不相同的国际政治身份,受到体系敌视、压制的状况,具有长期的国际政治效应。而此类国家实力增长及由此导致的权势对比变动,较一般崛起国家而言,往往将激发起现有体系内更为强大甚至远超常规的敌对性反应。崛起国家突破“熊通困境”存在两种方式与效应皆有所不同的路径:一是主要通过武力强制,力求最终颠覆现有国际体系,这意味着紧张局势的持续加剧乃至最终爆发大国间战争;二是致力于推动促进现有国际体系身份共识的瓦解,这意味着长期的、连贯的、灵活的、坚定的非军事与军事手段的战略组合运用。当前,在中国国家实力快速增长的背景下,霸权国家及其附庸集团对中国施加愈发强大压力的主要原因之一,便是美国等部分西方国家将中国视为与之“对立”的“他者”,并对这种国际政治身份存在根深蒂固的不信任乃至显著敌意。笃行和平与发展的当代中国,突破“熊通困境”的主要战略路径,在于逐步构建并推广新的国际体系“身份共识”,为此需要以改变他国意图和行为为目标,需要付出较长时间的努力、采取灵活的方式以及抱定锲而不舍之态度。
英文摘要:
      “Xiong Tong Predicament” refers to the dual problem faced by the rising power that is met with outright hostility from the current international system due to its “heterogeneous identity” and suppressed by the hegemonic power along with its allies due to the growing national strengths of the rising power. The historical experience of the State of Chu during the Western Zhou Dynasty and the Spring and Autumn Period indicates that a rising power, having a dramatically different political identity and possessing increasing national strengths and the resulting capacity to change the balance of power, will trigger more vehement and hostile reactions from the hegemonic power and its allies in the existing international system. There are two ways for the rising power to escape from the “Xiong Tong Predicament” that are totally opposing in terms of their logic, paths and effects. One aims to subvert the existing international system by force. The other intends to break the identity consensus of the current international system, which involves the long-term, consistent, flexible and steadfast application of strategic combination of non-military and military means. Currently, China, with its rapid growth of national strengths, is facing increasing pressure from the hegemonic power and its allies who hold deep-rooted distrust and considerable hostility towards it whose international political identity is defined as “The Other” opposite to that of the US-led Western countries. Remaining committed to peace and development, China needs to follow a strategic path that helps escape from the “Xiong Tong Predicament” by changing other countries’ intentions and behaviors as well as building and promoting a new “identity consensus”.
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