| 张望.安倍治下的日本对华政策：从战略制衡到战术避险[J].国际安全研究,2021,(2):86-106 |
| 安倍治下的日本对华政策：从战略制衡到战术避险 |
| Japan’s China Policy under Abe Administration: From Strategic Balancing to Tactical Hedging |
| 修订日期：2020-10-01 |
| DOI：10.14093/j.cnki.cn10-1132/d.2021.02.004 |
| 中文关键词: 制衡 避险 中日关系 日本对华政策 中美日战略三角 |
| 英文关键词: balancing, hedging, Sino-Japanese relations, Japan’s foreign policy, China- US-Japan strategic triangle |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 日本的对华外交深受国际体系和中美日三角关系的影响。由于中美两个大国在全球层面的战略竞争加剧，以2017年为分水岭，第二次安倍内阁领导下的日本的整体对华外交政策经历了从“战略制衡”向“战术避险”方向的转变。在2017年以前，日本为了联美对华实施“战略制衡”，在外交方面，以“印太战略”孤立中国；在安全方面，加强岛屿防卫能力和强化日美同盟；在经济方面，大力支持“跨太平洋伙伴关系协定”和对“一带一路”倡议持冷淡态度。在2017年以后，在中美关系的不确定性增大的情况下，安倍领导下的日本对华实施“战术避险”。在外交方面，加强印太战略的开放性、领导人互访和对华自制；在安全方面，继续强化国防上的内部制衡；在经济方面，有条件地认同“一带一路”倡议并对华展开第三方市场合作。展望未来，令和时代的日本将是一个拥有部分战略自主的中等强国，在日美同盟框架下维持与中国有距离的交往，力图在瞬息万变的国际政治角力中实现日本国家利益的最大化。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Japan’s diplomacy with China under the second Abe administration has been greatly influenced by the international situation and the US-China-Japan strategic triangle. This article argues that Japan, as a secondary power, has been shifting its China policy from “strategic balancing” to “tactical hedging” since 2017, and is adopting a mixed strategy that intends to search for a THIRD strategic choice between the United States and China. Before 2017, Japan adopted a strategic balancing approach by promoting “Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement” (TPP) with the United States, consolidating Self-Defense Forces (SDF) capability on island defense, and downplaying China’s “Belt and Road Initiative”. After 2017, given the uncertainty revealed in the US-China relations, Japan has adopted a tactical hedging approach by promoting the openness of the “Indo-Pacific Initiative” and China-Japan top leader summit, further consolidating defense capability, and demonstrating a partially positive attitude towards China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The author thinks that, in the Reiwa Era, Japan will rise to be a Middle Power with increased, while limited, strategic autonomy and is likely to engage with China more deliberately within the framework of Japan–US alliance. |
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