| 杨超.菲律宾政治集团在南海问题上的共识、分歧及成因[J].国际安全研究,2021,(3):52-77 |
| 菲律宾政治集团在南海问题上的共识、分歧及成因 |
| Consensus and Divergences among Philippine Political Groups on the South China Sea Issue and Their Causes |
| 投稿时间：2020-11-05 修订日期：2021-01-12 |
| DOI：10.14093/j.cnki.cn10-1132/d.2021.03.003 |
| 中文关键词: 菲律宾 政治集团 南海问题 南海仲裁案 反美民族主义 菲美同盟 |
| 英文关键词: the Philippines, political groups, South China Sea issue, the South China Sea arbitration, anti-US nationalism, the Philippines-US alliance |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 菲律宾国内各政治集团对菲律宾南海政策的制定产生程度不一的影响。基于维护本国利益的国家本位意识和立场，菲律宾各政治集团在南海问题上的共识有：坚持菲律宾所占据的南海岛礁的“主权”；要求以《联合国海洋法公约》为依据来解决南海争端；坚持南海仲裁“裁决”，等等。而硬实力的不足、美国安全承诺的不确定、中国在南海问题上的克制与和平立场以及菲律宾民情等因素导致菲律宾各政治集团在一定程度上达成通过和平方式解决南海问题的共识。除了对策略手段运用的不同理解导致的分歧，菲律宾各政治集团在南海问题上的分歧主要体现在对于菲美同盟及菲美双边军事协议存在着认同与强烈反对的不同声音，其深层原因来自于要求独立自主的反美民族主义与菲律宾国家安全需要之间的矛盾。菲律宾后续仍可能试图以南海“仲裁”结果对中国进行“软”抗争；菲美军事安全合作仍有强化的可能；中菲南海双边谈判以及共同开发协议有可能会随着菲律宾国内政治形势的变动而受到影响，存在较大变数。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Various domestic political groups of the Philippines have varying degrees of influence on the formulation of policies relating to the South China Sea. Based on its so-called national interests, political groups of the Philippines have reached the following consensus on the South China Sea issue: upholding the Philippines’ “sovereignty” over the islands and reefs in the South China Sea occupied by the Philippines, making a request for applying The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea to dispute settlement in the South China Sea, insisting on the South China Sea arbitration award, etc. Consensus has also been achieved among political groups that the South China Sea issue should be resolved through peaceful means owing to such factors as a deficiency of hard power, Washington’s uncertain security commitment, China’s self-restraint and peaceful stance on the South China Sea issue and the public sentiment of the Philippines. Apart from the divergences arising from different understandings of the employment of tactics and means, differences among Philippine political groups over the South China Sea issue are mainly reflected in different voices regarding whether or not to accept the Philippines-US alliance and bilateral military agreements. The underlying cause stems from the contradiction between the anti-US nationalism demanding independence and the Philippines’ national security needs. The Philippines may continue its efforts to launch “soft” protests against China on the pretext of the South China Sea arbitration award. The odds are high that the military and security cooperation between the Philippines and US may still be strengthened. The Philippine-China bilateral negotiations and joint development agreements on the South China Sea issue may be affected by the Philippines’ future domestic politics. |
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