文章摘要
杨辰博.内战域内蔓延的影响条件:选举支持与地理环境[J].国际安全研究,2021,(4):80-102
内战域内蔓延的影响条件:选举支持与地理环境
Probing into the Spread of Internal Conflicts: Electoral Support and Geographical Environment
  修订日期:2021-04-07
DOI:10.14093/j.cnki.cn10-1132/d.2021.04.004
中文关键词: 内战蔓延;斯里兰卡内战;选举;空间相依
英文关键词: spread of internal conflicts, Sri Lankan Civil War, election, spatial dependence
基金项目:
作者单位
杨辰博 兰州大学中亚研究所、兰州大学政治与国际关系学院 兰州 730000 
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中文摘要:
      理解内战中武装冲突波及范围的影响因素对当事国和国际冲突管理机制都具有重要意义。既有研究普遍认为,选举事件和地理环境要素可能对国内冲突发生和发展过程起显著作用,但关于这些因素如何作用于内战的域内蔓延路径仍存在深入讨论的空间。不同于现有文献的常见解释,通过讨论选举中地方投票支持情况和社会经济地理环境对各地武装冲突爆发的作用,并以斯里兰卡内战案例中的次国家行政单元为经验观察对象,在同一分析框架内考察两类条件在内战蔓延过程中的实际影响。实证研究发现,不同单元之间的武装冲突风险存在空间集聚效应;相比于自然地理条件,反映社会经济地理条件的城乡距离更加显著地影响本地冲突风险;较短的城乡距离在增加当地冲突风险的同时也会增加临近单元的冲突风险;地方对中央政府的选举支持在调节武装冲突发生和风险蔓延方面的作用并不稳健。
英文摘要:
      It is of paramount significance to understand the factors influencing the scope of armed conflict in civil wars for both the countries concerned and the international conflict management regime. It is generally believed that electoral events and geographical factors may play a significant role in the outbreak and escalation of civil conflicts, but there is still room for in-depth discussions on how these factors affect the internal spillover path of civil wars. Different from common interpretations of the existing literature, this paper seeks to explore the impact of the local voting support in elections as well as socio-economic and geographical environment on the outbreak of armed conflicts and take as empirical observation objects the sub-national administrative units in the case of the Sri Lankan civil war. Therefore, this paper will examine actual impacts of the two influencing factors in the spread of internal conflicts within the same analytical framework. The empirical study has found that there is a spatial clustering effect as regards the risk of armed conflict between different units; urban-rural distance reflecting socio-economic and geographical conditions may exert a more prominent impact on local conflict risks than natural and geographical conditions; shorter distances between urban and rural areas may increase the risks of armed conflicts in both local and neighboring units; local voting support for the central government fails to play a stable role in preventing “risk spillover” and the occurrence of armed conflicts.
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